Marko v Ellas Syros prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Marko 0–0 Ellas Syros MARKO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marko win~~50%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.838

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.927

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marko win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Marko was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Marko v Ellas Syros
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Marko win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
42′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–42–20
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Marko win 37%)
45′SECOND HALF Marko 0–0 Ellas Syros
46′HALF-TIME Marko 0–0 Ellas Syros
51′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Marko win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
60′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–16
68′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Marko win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
74′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
79′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Marko win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–87–5
90′We said Marko at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
94′Full time, 0–0. We called Marko at 50% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Marko 0–0 Ellas Syros
FTMarko 0–0 Ellas Syros · Marko win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marko are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marko 50%, draw 27%, Ellas Syros 24%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Marko v Ellas SyrosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marko win50%

Draw27%

Ellas Syros win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marko

Ellas Syros

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marko winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:24 · locked at kick-off

50% The market59%

Us50%

~~Market~~59%

We make Marko a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marko v Ellas Syros~~1.38 – 0.83

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 7 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 9~~1 v 6

~~The market · Marko win~~59% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Marko win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marko win	50%	59%	−9
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Ellas Syros win	24%	15%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	42%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Marko or draw	76%	85%	−9
Marko clean sheet	44%	–	–
Ellas Syros clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 11.2 9.9 4.0 1 15.5 11.7 5.1 2 10.1 8.1 3.4 3 4.8 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marko down, Ellas Syros across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 Super League 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marko at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ellas Syros away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Marko, 0.83 for Ellas Syros. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ELL 1–1 MAR · ELL 0–2 MAR · MAR 1–1 ELL · ELL 2–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 7 Sept

MARKO

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

ELLAS SYROS

DWWDDL2–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	6	+7	18
2	Kallithea	6	+5	15
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	6	+5	11
5	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
6	Ellas Syros	6	+5	9
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Niki Volos	6	0	7
10	Asteras Tripolis II	6	−2	7
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	−3	5
12	Pyrgos 1968	6	−4	5
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	6	−5	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
16	Zakynthos	6	−8	2