Larisa v Panserraikos prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Larisa 0–0 Panserraikos LARISA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Larisa win~~59%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.966

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.737

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Larisa win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Larisa 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Larisa v Panserraikos
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Larisa win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
38′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–36–17
45′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
45′HALF-TIME Larisa 0–0 Panserraikos
46′SECOND HALF Larisa 0–0 Panserraikos
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Larisa win 40%)
54′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Larisa win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–46–15
62′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
68′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Larisa win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
73′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
78′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–74–8
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Larisa win: 59% at kick-off, 18% now
82′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–81–6
85′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Larisa win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
92′We said Larisa at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–2
FTFULL TIME Larisa 0–0 Panserraikos
FTLarisa 0–0 Panserraikos · Larisa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Larisa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Larisa 59%, draw 23%, Panserraikos 18%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Larisa v PanserraikosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Larisa win59%

Draw23%

Panserraikos win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAEL FC Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Larisa

Panserraikos

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Larisa	6	+5	11
6	Panserraikos	6	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · larisa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market41%

Us59%

~~Market~~41%

We make Larisa a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Larisa v Panserraikos~~1.71 – 0.77

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~4 v 6

~~The market · Larisa win~~41% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Larisa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Larisa win	59%	41%	+18
Draw	23%	30%	−7
Panserraikos win	18%	29%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	44%	40%	+4
Both teams to score	42%	48%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	21%	+3
Larisa or draw	82%	71%	+11
Larisa clean sheet	47%	–	–
Panserraikos clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 9.1 7.3 2.7 1 14.7 10.2 4.2 2 11.6 8.5 3.3 3 6.7 4.8 4 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Larisa down, Panserraikos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,881 Super League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Larisa at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Panserraikos away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Larisa, 0.77 for Panserraikos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAN 1–1 LAR · LAR 0–1 PAN · LAR 1–0 PAN · PAN 0–2 LAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

LARISA

DWWWDL1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

PANSERRAIKOS

LWLWDW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	6	+5	15
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	6	+5	11
5	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
6	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
10	Niki Volos	6	0	7
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	−3	5
12	Pyrgos 1968	6	−4	5
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	6	−5	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3