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Kallithea v Panthrakikos

Kallithea

1–0Full time

Panthrakikos

Super League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Grigoris Lambrakis Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Kallithea 1–0 Panthrakikos KALLITHEA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kallithea win~~54%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.319

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.206

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kallithea win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Kallithea v Panthrakikos
2′Little has changed for our model: Kallithea 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
42′We said Kallithea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–42–17
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kallithea win: 54% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Kallithea 0–0 Panthrakikos
50′SECOND HALF Kallithea 0–0 Panthrakikos
51′We said Kallithea at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–48–15
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Kallithea win 37%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Kallithea 1–0 Panthrakikos
68′54′ and it is 1–0: Kallithea have scored. 1–0 · 89–10–1
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Kallithea win: 54% at kick-off, 89% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Kallithea win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
84′⚽ GOAL · 54' Kallithea 1–0 Panthrakikos
90′We said Kallithea at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Kallithea win: 54% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Kallithea 1–0 Panthrakikos
FTKallithea 1–0 Panthrakikos · Kallithea win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kallithea win54%

Draw27%

Panthrakikos win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Grigoris Lambrakis Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kallithea winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

54% The market63%

Us54%

~~Market~~63%

We make Kallithea a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kallithea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kallithea win	54%	63%	−9
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Panthrakikos win	19%	13%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	36%	45%	−9
Both teams to score	37%	40%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−7
Kallithea or draw	81%	87%	−6
Kallithea clean sheet	50%	–	–
Panthrakikos clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 12.4 8.9 3.1 1 17.2 11.1 4.1 2 11.7 7.9 2.8 3 5.7 3.8 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kallithea down, Panthrakikos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Super League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.9% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kallithea at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Panthrakikos away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Kallithea, 0.70 for Panthrakikos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League 2

KALLITHEA

DWWLWW0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

PANTHRAKIKOS

DWWLD0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	5	+6	15
2	Larisa	5	+6	11
3	Panionios	5	+2	10
4	Ellas Syros	5	+6	9
5	Kallithea	4	+3	9
6	Panthrakikos	5	+2	8
7	Panserraikos	5	+2	7
8	Asteras Tripolis II	5	−2	6
9	Apollon Pontou	5	−1	5
10	PAOK II	5	−2	5
11	Pyrgos 1968	5	−3	5
12	Niki Volos	5	−1	4
13	Nestos Chrisoupolis	5	−3	4
14	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	−4	4
15	Zakynthos	5	−5	2
16	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	−6	2