Kallithea v Larisa prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Kallithea 1–1 Larisa KALLITHEA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kallithea win~~35%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.728

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kallithea win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kallithea 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
1′KICK-OFF Kallithea v Larisa
3′Kallithea find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–12
3′We said Kallithea at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–12
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Kallithea 1–0 Larisa
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Kallithea win: 35% at kick-off, 66% now
26′We said Kallithea at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–8
35′A goal for Kallithea on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
35′We said Kallithea at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kallithea 2–0 Larisa
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Kallithea win: 35% at kick-off, 93% now
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Kallithea
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Kallithea win: 35% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Kallithea 1–0 Larisa
46′SECOND HALF Kallithea 1–0 Larisa
47′We said Kallithea at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′We said Kallithea at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′A goal for Larisa on 64′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–62–19
64′We said Kallithea at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Kallithea 1–1 Larisa
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Kallithea win: 35% at kick-off, 19% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kallithea win 81%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Kallithea win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
73′We said Kallithea at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
80′We said Kallithea at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Kallithea win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
88′We said Kallithea at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Kallithea 1–1 Larisa
FTKallithea 1–1 Larisa · Kallithea win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kallithea just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kallithea 35%, draw 31%, Larisa 34%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Kallithea v LarisaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kallithea win35%

Draw31%

Larisa win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGrigoris Lambrakis Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kallithea

Larisa

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 2

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kallithea	7	+5	16
4	Larisa	7	+5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kallithea winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

35% The market42%

Us35%

~~Market~~42%

We make Kallithea a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kallithea v Larisa~~0.97 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 12~~2 v 4

~~The market · Kallithea win~~42% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kallithea win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kallithea win	35%	42%	−7
Draw	31%	31%	0
Larisa win	34%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Both teams to score	36%	44%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	56%	61%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	13%	19%	−6
Kallithea or draw	66%	73%	−7
Kallithea clean sheet	40%	–	–
Larisa clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.2 14.3 6.7 2.2 1 14.3 12.4 6.0 2.0 2 6.8 6.2 3.0 3 2.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kallithea down, Larisa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,887 Super League 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2015/16 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kallithea at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Larisa away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Kallithea, 0.95 for Larisa. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2015/16

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KAL 1–3 LAR · LAR 1–0 KAL · KAL 0–1 LAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

KALLITHEA

LWWWWD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

LARISA

WWWDLD1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	7	+7	19
2	Kallithea	7	+5	16
3	Panionios	7	+5	14
4	Larisa	7	+5	12
5	Panserraikos	7	+3	11
6	Ellas Syros	7	+5	10
7	Panthrakikos	7	+1	9
8	Niki Volos	7	0	8
9	Apollon Pontou	7	−1	8
10	Anagennisi Karditsas	7	−2	8
11	Asteras Tripolis II	7	−2	8
12	PAOK II	7	−4	8
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	7	−5	6
14	Nestos Chrisoupolis	7	−4	5
15	Pyrgos 1968	7	−5	5
16	Zakynthos	7	−8	3