Ellas Syros v Niki Volos prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Ellas Syros 0–1 Niki Volos ELLAS SYROS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ellas Syros win~~42%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.587

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ellas Syros win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ellas Syros was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
8′Much as we predicted: Ellas Syros was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–30
30′Niki Volos find the net on 25′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–63
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
38′Niki Volos ahead on 25′ through T. Pasalidis. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–66
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′We said Ellas Syros at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–68
45′HALF-TIME Ellas Syros 0–1 Niki Volos
46′SECOND HALF Ellas Syros 0–1 Niki Volos
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Niki Volos win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ellas Syros win 9%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Niki Volos win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ellas Syros win 9%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Niki Volos win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ellas Syros win 9%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Niki Volos win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ellas Syros win 9%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Niki Volos win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ellas Syros win 9%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Ellas Syros win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Niki Volos win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ellas Syros win 9%)
FTFULL TIME Ellas Syros 0–1 Niki Volos
FTEllas Syros 0–1 Niki Volos · Ellas Syros win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ellas Syros win42%

Draw27%

Niki Volos win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ellas Syros

Niki Volos

6Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ellas Syros	5	+6	9
12	Niki Volos	5	−1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ellas syros winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

42% The market31%

Us42%

~~Market~~31%

We make Ellas Syros a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ellas syros win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ellas Syros win	42%	31%	+11
Draw	27%	32%	−4
Niki Volos win	31%	37%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	38%	+2
Both teams to score	44%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	63%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	20%	0
Ellas Syros or draw	69%	63%	+7
Ellas Syros clean sheet	37%	–	–
Niki Volos clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.4 10.8 5.4 1 13.3 12.2 6.4 2.3 2 8.1 7.8 4.0 3 3.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ellas Syros down, Niki Volos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,872 Super League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ellas Syros at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Niki Volos away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Ellas Syros, 1.02 for Niki Volos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League 2

ELLAS SYROS

WDWWDD1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

NIKI VOLOS

WLLLWD3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	5	+6	15
2	Kallithea	5	+4	12
3	Larisa	5	+6	11
4	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
5	Panionios	5	+2	10
6	Ellas Syros	5	+6	9
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Asteras Tripolis II	5	−2	6
9	Apollon Pontou	5	−1	5
10	PAOK II	5	−2	5
11	Pyrgos 1968	5	−3	5
12	Niki Volos	5	−1	4
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	−4	4
14	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
15	Zakynthos	5	−5	2
16	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	−6	2