Asteras Tripolis II v Zakynthos prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Asteras Tripolis II 1–1 Zakynthos ASTERAS TRIPOLIS II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asteras Tripolis II win~~59%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.977

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asteras Tripolis II win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Asteras Tripolis II was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Asteras Tripolis II v Zakynthos
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Asteras Tripolis II win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
37′We published Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–3
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Asteras Tripolis II 1–0 Zakynthos
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Asteras Tripolis II win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–3
38′Asteras Tripolis II score on 38′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–3
45′SECOND HALF Asteras Tripolis II 1–0 Zakynthos
49′HALF-TIME Asteras Tripolis II 1–0 Zakynthos
50′We published Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Asteras Tripolis II win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
72′We published Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′We published Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′We said Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–86–4
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Asteras Tripolis II 1–1 Zakynthos
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Asteras Tripolis II win: 59% at kick-off, 10% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Asteras Tripolis II win 10%)
86′Zakynthos find the net on 85′. 1–1. 1–1 · 9–88–4
86′We said Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–4
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Asteras Tripolis II win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
92′We said Asteras Tripolis II at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–2
94′Full time, 1–1. We called Asteras Tripolis II at 59% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Asteras Tripolis II 1–1 Zakynthos
FTAsteras Tripolis II 1–1 Zakynthos · Asteras Tripolis II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Asteras Tripolis II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asteras Tripolis II 59%, draw 23%, Zakynthos 18%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Asteras Tripolis II v ZakynthosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Asteras Tripolis II win59%

Draw23%

Zakynthos win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:45

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asteras Tripolis II

Zakynthos

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 2

Last match: 12 Oct · Super League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Asteras Tripolis II	6	−2	7
16	Zakynthos	6	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asteras tripolis ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

59% The market51%

Us59%

~~Market~~51%

We make Asteras Tripolis II a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asteras Tripolis II v Zakynthos~~1.72 – 0.76

~~Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 2~~10 v 16

~~The market · Asteras Tripolis II win~~51% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Asteras Tripolis II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asteras Tripolis II win	59%	51%	+8
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Zakynthos win	18%	21%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
Asteras Tripolis II or draw	82%	79%	+3
Asteras Tripolis II clean sheet	48%	–	–
Zakynthos clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 9.0 7.4 2.8 1 14.9 10.1 4.1 2 11.7 8.3 3.2 3 6.8 4.7 4 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asteras Tripolis II down, Zakynthos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 Super League 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Asteras Tripolis II at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zakynthos away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Asteras Tripolis II, 0.76 for Zakynthos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS II

LLWLWD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

ZAKYNTHOS

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	6	+7	18
2	Kallithea	6	+5	15
3	Panionios	6	+5	13
4	Larisa	6	+5	11
5	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
6	Ellas Syros	6	+5	9
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Apollon Pontou	6	0	8
9	Niki Volos	6	0	7
10	Asteras Tripolis II	6	−2	7
11	Anagennisi Karditsas	6	−3	5
12	Pyrgos 1968	6	−4	5
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	6	−5	5
14	PAOK II	6	−5	5
15	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
16	Zakynthos	6	−8	2