Apollon Pontou v Pyrgos 1968 prediction · Super League 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Apollon Pontou 1–0 Pyrgos 1968 APOLLON PONTOU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Apollon Pontou win~~37%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.588

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Apollon Pontou win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Apollon Pontou 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–31–32
1′KICK-OFF Apollon Pontou v Pyrgos 1968
3′Little has changed for our model: Apollon Pontou 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–32
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Apollon Pontou win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Apollon Pontou 0–0 Pyrgos 1968
46′SECOND HALF Apollon Pontou 0–0 Pyrgos 1968
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Apollon Pontou win 28%)
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Apollon Pontou win 28%)
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Apollon Pontou 1–0 Pyrgos 1968
FTFULL TIME Apollon Pontou 1–0 Pyrgos 1968
FTApollon Pontou 1–0 Pyrgos 1968 · Apollon Pontou win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Apollon Pontou win37%

Draw30%

Pyrgos 1968 win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Apollon Pontou

Pyrgos 1968

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Apollon Pontou	5	−1	5
11	Pyrgos 1968	5	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apollon pontou winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

37% The market47%

Us37%

~~Market~~47%

We make Apollon Pontou a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · apollon pontou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Apollon Pontou win	37%	47%	−10
Draw	30%	30%	+1
Pyrgos 1968 win	32%	23%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
Both teams to score	37%	46%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	57%	65%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	14%	23%	−8
Apollon Pontou or draw	68%	77%	−9
Apollon Pontou clean sheet	40%	–	–
Pyrgos 1968 clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.6 13.5 6.1 2.1 1 14.6 12.3 5.9 2 7.4 6.5 3.0 3 2.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Apollon Pontou down, Pyrgos 1968 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,872 Super League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Apollon Pontou at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pyrgos 1968 away: 0.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Apollon Pontou, 0.94 for Pyrgos 1968. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League 2

APOLLON PONTOU

LDLLWD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

PYRGOS 1968

DLLDW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Marko	5	+6	15
2	Kallithea	5	+4	12
3	Larisa	5	+6	11
4	Panserraikos	6	+3	10
5	Panionios	5	+2	10
6	Ellas Syros	5	+6	9
7	Panthrakikos	6	+1	8
8	Asteras Tripolis II	5	−2	6
9	Apollon Pontou	5	−1	5
10	PAOK II	5	−2	5
11	Pyrgos 1968	5	−3	5
12	Niki Volos	5	−1	4
13	Olympiakos Piraeus II	4	−4	4
14	Nestos Chrisoupolis	6	−4	4
15	Zakynthos	5	−5	2
16	Anagennisi Karditsas	5	−6	2