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PAOK v Kalamata

PAOK

1–3Full time

Kalamata

Super League 1 · MON 12 OCT · Toumba Stadium

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

PAOK 1–3 Kalamata PAOK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PAOK win~~75%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.425

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 47 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PAOK win at 75%.
1′KICK-OFF PAOK v Kalamata
2′Much as we predicted: PAOK was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 77–14–8
27′We said PAOK at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–1 · 43–27–31
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' PAOK 0–1 Kalamata
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 43% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' PAOK 0–1 Kalamata · Kenneth Vargas
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 43% now
29′28′ and it is 0–1: Kenneth Vargas on the scoresheet for Kalamata. 0–1 · 41–27–31
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 43% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 41% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 41–28–32
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 41% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 41% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 40% now
32′We said PAOK at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–28–33
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 40% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 39% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 39% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 39% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 37% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 37% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 37% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 36% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 36% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 35% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 35% now
40′We said PAOK at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–30–36
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 35% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 34% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 33% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro · Kalamata
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' PAOK win: 75% at kick-off, 33% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' PAOK 0–1 Kalamata · Cherif Ndiaye
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' PAOK · On: Andrija Živković · Off: Dimitrios Chatsidis
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' PAOK · On: Aritz Elustondo · Off: Giannis Michailidis
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' PAOK 1–1 Kalamata · Cherif Ndiaye
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' PAOK 1–1 Kalamata · Kenneth Vargas
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' David Kurminowski · Kalamata
61′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Antonis Tsiftsis · PAOK
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' PAOK 1–2 Kalamata · Kenneth Vargas
63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Antonis Tsiftsis · PAOK
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' PAOK · On: Dimitrios Monastirlis · Off: Dimitrios Pelkas
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' PAOK 1–3 Kalamata · Kenneth Vargas
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' PAOK 1–3 Kalamata · David Kurminowski
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kalamata · On: M. Bakayoko · Off: Antônio Josenildo Rodrigues de Oliveira
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' PAOK · On: Simon Banza · Off: Taison Barcellos Freda
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' PAOK · On: Ognjen ugresic · Off: Kristijan Jakić
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kalamata · On: J. Cataldi · Off: Djibril Diarra
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kalamata · On: Argyrios Liatsikouras · Off: Ahmad Mendes Moreira
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kalamata · On: Arnór Sigurðsson · Off: Erik Hamza
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kalamata · On: Josete Miranda · Off: David Kurminowski
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Aritz Elustondo · PAOK
FTFULL TIME PAOK 1–3 Kalamata
FTPAOK 1–3 Kalamata · PAOK win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

PAOK win75%

Draw16%

Kalamata win9%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

VenueToumba Stadium

RefereeAlexandros Katsikogiannis

Line-ups

PAOK

4-2-3-1

Kalamata

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

PAOK

Kalamata

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	PAOK	5	+7	12
11	Kalamata	5	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PAOK

4-2-3-1

99 A. Tsiftsis

3 J. Kenny

19 Diego Costa

5 G. Michailidis

21 A. Baba

20 C. Zafeiris

18 K. Jakić

52 D. Chatsidis

10 D. Pelkas

11 Taison

27 C. Ndiaye

Coach · A. Lisci

Substitutes

2 · M. Camara

24 · S. Banza

6 · Elustondo

13 · D. Giannoulis

4 · P. Hatzidiakos

41 · D. Monastirlis

56 · A. Mythou

7 · B. Santamaría

47 · S. Shoretire

32 · G. Taylor

16 · O. Ugresić

14 · A. Živković

Kalamata

4-2-3-1

40 N. Vasiljević

22 P. Kaloutsikidis

4 S. Stroungis

97 Rodrigues

17 Julio Alonso

23 G. Piñeiro

6 D. Diarra

77 K. Vargas

24 E. Hamza

20 A. Mendes Moreira

91 D. Kurminowski

Coach · Panagiotis Christofileas

Substitutes

10 · A. Sigurðsson

11 · Josete Miranda

8 · A. Liatsikouras

29 · U. Ignjatović

44 · A. Guessand

26 · P. Ginis

1 · I. Gelios

12 · I. Chatzitheodoridis

7 · J. Cataldi

32 · J. Bonetto

19 · M. J. Bakayoko

14 · M. Soumahoro

Our number · paok winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

75% The market78%

Us75%

~~Market~~78%

We make PAOK a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · paok win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 79% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PAOK win	75%	78%	−3
Draw	16%	14%	+2
Kalamata win	9%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	61%	+4
Both teams to score	50%	44%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	40%	+4
PAOK or draw	91%	92%	−1
PAOK clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kalamata clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 4.6 1 8.1 7.7 2.7 2 11.1 8.4 3.3 3 9.6 7.1 2.8 4 6.5 4.7 5 3.7 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+PAOK down, Kalamata across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,235 Super League 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

PAOK at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kalamata away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.66 goals for PAOK, 0.77 for Kalamata. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 15:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Super League 1 since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League 1

PAOK

DWWLWW2–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–1

KALAMATA

LLDWL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	6	+9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	+3	13
4	PAOK	5	+7	12
5	OFI	6	+1	10
6	Aris Thessalonikis	6	−4	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	−1	9
9	Kifisia	6	−1	8
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
11	Kalamata	5	−2	4
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Volos NFC	6	−6	2
14	Levadiakos	6	−11	1