Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Panetolikos 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olympiakos Piraeus win~~58%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.279

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.135

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympiakos Piraeus win at 58%.
2′Much as we predicted: Olympiakos Piraeus was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 14–29–57
2′KICK-OFF Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Joel Roca · Olympiakos Piraeus
18′17′: Joel Roca on the scoresheet for Olympiakos Piraeus, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–11–86
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Panetolikos 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus · Joel Roca
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 58% at kick-off, 86% now
19′We published Olympiakos Piraeus at 58%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 3–11–86
23′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Panetolikos · On: Marvelous Nakamba · Off: Gustav Granath
26′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Kwadwo Opoku · Panetolikos
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 3–11–86
40′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Gelson Martins · Off: Kostas Fortounis
45′HALF-TIME Panetolikos 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Panetolikos · On: Athanasios Prodromitis · Off: Christian Manrique Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Panetolikos 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
54′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Panetolikos · On: Athanasios Prodromitis · Off: Charis Mavrias
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Panetolikos · On: Novica Eraković · Off: Moussa Djenepo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Jota Silva · Off: Joel Roca
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Chiquinho · Off: Gustavo Sá
66′We published Olympiakos Piraeus at 58%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Athanasios Prodromitis · Panetolikos
73′Olympiakos Piraeus ahead on 73′ through Chiquinho. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Panetolikos 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus · Chiquinho
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 58% at kick-off, over 99% now
74′We published Olympiakos Piraeus at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Panetolikos · On: Kosta Aleksic · Off: Mateo Mejia
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Armando González · Off: Marius Mouandilmadji
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Santiago Hezze · Off: Gustavo Puerta
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Panetolikos · On: Lampros Smyrlis · Off: Amine Bassi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Panetolikos · On: Lampros Smyrlis · Off: Amine Bassi
FTFULL TIME Panetolikos 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus
FTPanetolikos 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus · Olympiakos Piraeus win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympiakos Piraeus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panetolikos 14%, draw 29%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Panetolikos v Olympiakos PiraeusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Panetolikos win14%

Draw29%

Olympiakos Piraeus win58%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenuePanetolikos Stadium

RefereeMatsoukas, Michalis

Line-ups

Panetolikos

4-4-2

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panetolikos

Olympiakos Piraeus

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 1

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	+3	13
8	Panetolikos	6	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Panetolikos

4-4-2

23 V. Xenopoulos

35 C. Mavrias

2 G. Granath

49 N. Stajić

15 Christian Manrique

90 K. Opoku

22 Diego Esteban

8 K. Thymianis

12 M. Djenepo

9 José Mateo Mejía Piedrahita

10 A. Bassi

Coach · Y. Anastasiou

Substitutes

7 · L. Smyrlis

5 · A. Prodromitis

11 · S. Soumah

4 · E. Olsson

14 · K. Aleksić

65 · A. Apostolopoulos

20 · Youssouph Badji

19 · A. Bregou

44 · N. Eraković

6 · M. Nakamba

77 · E. Nikolaou

1 · Michalis Pardalos

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

1 S. Ortega

27 M. Pedersen

45 P. Retsos

5 L. Pirola

71 N. Tiknizyan

15 G. Puerta

19 R. Freuler

73 Joel Roca

8 Gustavo Sá

7 K. Fortounis

99 M. Mouandilmadji

Coach · Imanol Alguacil

Substitutes

20 · Jota Silva

34 · A. González

32 · S. Hezze

22 · Chiquinho

6 · David Carmo

70 · S. Onyemaechi

31 · B. Popović

16 · L. Scipioni

4 · Z. Smajlović

11 · R. Yaremchuk

90 · Clayton

10 · Gelson Martins

Our number · olympiakos piraeus winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market70%

Us58%

~~Market~~70%

We make Olympiakos Piraeus a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus~~0.61 – 1.52

~~Form · Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~8 v 3

~~The market · Olympiakos Piraeus win~~70% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympiakos Piraeus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 71% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panetolikos win	14%	10%	+4
Draw	29%	19%	+10
Olympiakos Piraeus win	58%	70%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	36%	53%	−17
Both teams to score	37%	44%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	75%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	17%	31%	−14
Panetolikos or draw	42%	30%	+12
Panetolikos clean sheet	22%	–	–
Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet	55%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.7%

0123450 13.6 16.7 13.6 7.0 2.7 1 5.9 12.2 8.1 4.1 2 2.3 3.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panetolikos down, Olympiakos Piraeus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,237 Super League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panetolikos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.61 goals for Panetolikos, 1.52 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OLY 2–0 PAN · PAN 0–1 OLY · PAN 0–2 OLY · OLY 0–0 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug

PANETOLIKOS

WWWLLL3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS

WWDLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	6	+9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	+3	13
4	PAOK	6	+5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	−4	10
6	OFI	6	+1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	−1	9
9	Kifisia	6	−1	8
10	Kalamata	6	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Levadiakos	7	−11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0