Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Panathinaikos 5–1 Asteras Tripolis PANATHINAIKOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panathinaikos win~~66%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.184

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Panathinaikos win at 66%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Panathinaikos 66% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–24–11
4′KICK-OFF Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis
20′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Panathinaikos · On: Andrews Tetteh · Off: Azzedine Ounahi
27′We said Panathinaikos at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–3
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Panathinaikos 1–0 Asteras Tripolis
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Panathinaikos win: 66% at kick-off, 88% now
29′Stefan de Vrij scores for Panathinaikos on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–3
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
31′We said Panathinaikos at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras Tripolis
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Panathinaikos win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
33′31′: Imrân Louza on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′SECOND HALF Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras Tripolis
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Panathinaikos · On: Vicente Taborda · Off: Levi García
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Asteras Tripolis · On: Antonis Papakanellos · Off: Kalvin Ketu
48′HALF-TIME Panathinaikos 2–0 Asteras Tripolis
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 89–10–1
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Panathinaikos 2–1 Asteras Tripolis
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Panathinaikos win: 66% at kick-off, 89% now
62′Antonis Papakanellos scores for Asteras Tripolis on 60′. 3–1 · 99–1–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Panathinaikos 3–1 Asteras Tripolis
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Panathinaikos win: 66% at kick-off, 99% now
63′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Asteras Tripolis · On: Dimitrios Kourbelis · Off: Eder González
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Asteras Tripolis · On: Giannis Bouzoukis · Off: Julián Chicco
65′Cyriel Dessers scores for Panathinaikos on 62′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Panathinaikos · On: Elmin Rastoder · Off: Kings Kangwa
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Panathinaikos · On: Pedro Chirivella · Off: Cyriel Dessers
72′We said Panathinaikos at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Asteras Tripolis · On: Franco Orozco · Off: Dimitrios Laskaris
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Panathinaikos 4–1 Asteras Tripolis
73′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
73′72′: Davide Calabria on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Panathinaikos · On: Adriano Jagusic · Off: Santino Andino
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Asteras Tripolis · On: Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · Off: Federico Macheda
83′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Panathinaikos 5–1 Asteras Tripolis
84′Panathinaikos ahead on 83′ through Andrews Tetteh. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
92′5–1 at the end. Our 66% on Panathinaikos comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Panathinaikos 5–1 Asteras Tripolis
FTPanathinaikos 5–1 Asteras Tripolis · Panathinaikos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panathinaikos are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panathinaikos 66%, draw 23%, Asteras Tripolis 11%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Panathinaikos v Asteras TripolisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Panathinaikos win66%

Draw23%

Asteras Tripolis win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueApostolos Nikolaidis Stadium

RefereeAngelos Evangelou

Line-ups

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

Asteras Tripolis

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panathinaikos

Asteras Tripolis

3Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

1 Iñaki Peña

2 D. Calabria

6 S. de Vrij

55 R. van Drongelen

5 A. Salah-Eddine

42 K. Kangwa

26 I. Louza

99 L. García

21 A. Ounahi

10 Santino Andino

9 C. Dessers

Coach · Jacob Neestrup

Substitutes

8 · Adriano Jagušić

4 · Pedro Chirivella

70 · K. Kotsaris

7 · A. Tetteh

19 · T. Tsapras

20 · V. Taborda

12 · L. Chaves

77 · G. Kiriakopoulos

18 · S. Kontouris

14 · E. Palmer-Brown

28 · F. Pellistri

74 · E. Rastoder

Asteras Tripolis

3-4-3

1 N. Papadopoulos

74 D. Laskaris

16 F. Brorsson

6 K. Chrisopoulos

27 G. Kotsiras

10 Eder González

14 J. Chicco

28 Alex Méndez

7 J. Bartolo

9 F. Macheda

11 K. Ketu

Coach · G. Antonopoulos

Substitutes

8 · I. Bouzoukis

61 · V. Chatziemmanouil

64 · P. Deligiannidis

20 · N. Kaltsas

21 · D. Kourbelis

51 · Giannis Kriaras

75 · B. Mbunga Kimpioka

19 · F. Orozco

44 · A. Papakanellos

17 · A. Tereziou

39 · Ricardinho

66 · Matias Zogu

Our number · panathinaikos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market77%

Us66%

~~Market~~77%

We make Panathinaikos a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis~~1.94 – 0.67

~~Form · Super League 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 5~~1 v 11

~~The market · Panathinaikos win~~77% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panathinaikos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 78% to 77% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panathinaikos win	66%	77%	−11
Draw	23%	15%	+8
Asteras Tripolis win	11%	7%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	60%	−12
Both teams to score	43%	43%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	80%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
Panathinaikos or draw	89%	93%	−4
Panathinaikos clean sheet	51%	–	–
Asteras Tripolis clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.6%

0123450 8.9 3.8 1 13.1 10.7 3.2 2 13.6 9.0 3.1 3 8.8 5.8 4 4.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panathinaikos down, Asteras Tripolis across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,237 Super League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panathinaikos at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Asteras Tripolis away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Panathinaikos, 0.67 for Asteras Tripolis. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 15:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–2 PAN · PAN 2–0 AST · AST 0–1 PAN · PAN 0–1 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 1 this season · since 23 Aug

PANATHINAIKOS

WWWWWL2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS

LLLDDW1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	6	+9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	+3	13
4	PAOK	6	+5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	−4	10
6	OFI	6	+1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	−1	9
9	Kifisia	6	−1	8
10	Kalamata	6	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Levadiakos	7	−11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0