Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Panathinaikos OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Olympiakos Piraeus win~~47%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.429

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympiakos Piraeus win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
29′Little has changed for our model: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–37–22
33′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
36′Panagiotis Retsos scores for Olympiakos Piraeus on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–4
39′Panagiotis Retsos scores for Olympiakos Piraeus on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
42′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–16–3
48′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
66′Olympiakos Piraeus are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 86–13–1
67′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
78′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–0
84′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Santiago Hezze · Off: Gustavo Puerta
90′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 100% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Adriano Jagusic · Panathinaikos
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 47% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Panathinaikos
FTOlympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Panathinaikos · Olympiakos Piraeus win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olympiakos Piraeus win47%

Draw32%

Panathinaikos win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueKaraiskakis Stadium

RefereeAlejandro Hernandez

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olympiakos Piraeus

Panathinaikos

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	+10	15
4	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	+2	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

1 S. Ortega

2 M. Saliakas

45 P. Retsos

5 L. Pirola

71 N. Tiknizyan

15 G. Puerta

19 R. Freuler

20 Jota Silva

22 Chiquinho

7 K. Fortounis

99 M. Mouandilmadji

Coach · Imanol Alguacil

Substitutes

31 · B. Popovic

6 · D. Carmo

27 · M. Pedersen

70 · B. Onyemaechi

4 · Z. Smajlovic

8 · G. Sa

32 · S. Hezze

73 · J. Roca

11 · R. Yaremchuk

17 · L. Bailey

10 · G. Martins

34 · A. Gonzalez

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pena

2 D. Calabria

6 S. de Vrij

55 R. Van Drongelen

77 G. Kyriakopoulos

26 I. Louza

22 E. Camara

20 V. Taborda

21 A. Ounahi

10 S. Andino

7 A. Tetteh

Coach · Jacob Neestrup

Substitutes

12 · L. Chaves

70 · K. Kotsaris

19 · T. Tsapras

14 · E. Palmer-Brown

5 · A. Salah-Eddine

4 · P. Chirivella

42 · K. Kangwa

8 · A. Jagusic

9 · C. Dessers

99 · L. Garcia

28 · F. Pellistri

74 · E. Rastoder

Our number · olympiakos piraeus winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

47% The market44%

Us47%

~~Market~~44%

We make Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olympiakos piraeus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympiakos Piraeus win	47%	44%	+3
Draw	32%	30%	+1
Panathinaikos win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	36%	44%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−7
Olympiakos Piraeus or draw	78%	74%	+4
Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet	45%	–	–
Panathinaikos clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 13.8 8.1 3.9 1 14.0 14.0 5.1 2 10.2 8.2 3.4 3 4.5 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympiakos Piraeus down, Panathinaikos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,231 Super League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.9% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Panathinaikos away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.81 for Panathinaikos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 20

~~Both scored~~8 of 20

~~Last meetings~~OLY 1–0 PAN · PAN 0–2 OLY · OLY 0–1 PAN · PAN 1–1 OLY

Form · last six in Super League 1

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS

DWWDLW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

PANATHINAIKOS

DWWWWW2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	+10	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	PAOK	5	+7	12
4	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	+2	10
5	OFI	6	+1	10
6	Panetolikos	5	+1	9
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	−5	7
8	Iraklis 1908	5	−2	6
9	Kifisia	5	−3	5
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
11	Kalamata	5	−2	4
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Volos NFC	5	−5	2
14	Levadiakos	5	−9	1