OFI v PAOK prediction · Super League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OFIDrawPAOK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · PAOK 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PAOK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: OFI 19%, draw 23%, PAOK 57%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on OFI v PAOKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

OFI win19%

Draw23%

PAOK win57%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTheodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium

RefereeChristos Vergetis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

OFI

PAOK

3Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	PAOK	7	+6	15
8	OFI	7	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paok winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

57% The market55%

Us57%

~~Market~~55%

We make PAOK a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · OFI v PAOK~~1.13 – 2.07

~~Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~8 v 4

~~The market · PAOK win~~55% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PAOK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
OFI win	19%	20%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
PAOK win	57%	55%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	52%	+10
Both teams to score	60%	53%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	84%	75%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	40%	30%	+10
OFI or draw	43%	45%	−2
OFI clean sheet	13%	–	–
PAOK clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.6 7.3 8.6 5.9 3.1 1 3.5 10.7 9.6 6.5 3.4 2 2.7 5.4 5.4 3.7 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+OFI down, PAOK across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,245 Super League 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

OFI at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). PAOK away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for OFI, 2.07 for PAOK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAO 0–0 OFI · PAO 2–2 OFI · PAO 3–0 OFI · OFI 1–2 PAO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 30 Aug

OFI

LWWDLL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–4

PAOK

WLWWLW2–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	7	+13	18
2	AEK Athens FC	7	+18	17
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	7	+5	16
4	PAOK	7	+6	15
5	Aris Thessalonikis	7	−3	13
6	Kifisia	8	−1	11
7	Kalamata	7	+1	10
8	OFI	7	0	10
9	Iraklis 1908	8	−2	9
10	Panetolikos	8	−8	9
11	Asteras Tripolis	8	−8	6
12	Levadiakos	8	−11	3
13	Atromitos	6	−4	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0