Kifisia v Panetolikos prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Kifisia 2–0 Panetolikos KIFISIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kifisia win~~40%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kifisia win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kifisia was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Kifisia v Panetolikos
4′Much as we predicted: Kifisia was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–30
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Kifisia 0–0 Panetolikos
21′Kifisia find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Kifisia 1–0 Panetolikos
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Kifisia win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Kifisia win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
22′We published Kifisia at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Kifisia win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Amine Bassi · Panetolikos
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
32′We published Kifisia at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–8
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Ángelo Sagal · Kifisia
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Kifisia win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Kifisia win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Kifisia win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Kifisia 1–0 Panetolikos
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kifisia · On: Jeremy Antonisse · Off: Bernardo Martins
46′SECOND HALF Kifisia 1–0 Panetolikos
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Salifou Soumah · Panetolikos
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Leroy Abanda Mfomo · Kifisia
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Panetolikos · On: Adriano bregou · Off: Amine Bassi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Panetolikos · On: Moussa Djenepo · Off: Salifou Soumah
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kifisia · On: Gerson Liliano Saches Sousa · Off: Ángelo Sagal
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kifisia · On: Apóstolos Christópoulos · Off: dimitrios theodoridis
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Panetolikos · On: Kosta Aleksic · Off: Marvelous Nakamba
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Konstantinos Thymianis · Panetolikos
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Yevhenii Kucherenko · Panetolikos
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Apóstolos Christópoulos · Kifisia
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kifisia · On: Georgios Kyriopoulos · Off: Jorge Pombo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Panetolikos · On: Lampros Smyrlis · Off: Youssouph Badji
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Panetolikos · On: Mateo Mejia · Off: Kwadwo Opoku Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Clément Jolibois · Kifisia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Kifisia · On: Hugo Sousa · Off: Seedy Jagne
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kifisia 2–0 Panetolikos · Jorge Pombo
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Kifisia 2–0 Panetolikos · Leroy Abanda Mfomo
FTFULL TIME Kifisia 2–0 Panetolikos
FTKifisia 2–0 Panetolikos · Kifisia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kifisia win40%

Draw31%

Panetolikos win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueApostolos Nikolaidis Stadium

RefereePanagiotis Koukoulas

Line-ups

Kifisia

4-2-3-1

Panetolikos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kifisia

Panetolikos

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Panetolikos	5	+1	9
9	Kifisia	5	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kifisia

4-2-3-1

99 M. Ramirez

48 T. Manso

34 C. Jolibois

24 R. van Eijma

23 L. Abanda

19 I. Jagne

17 K. Roukounakis

28 A. Sagal

6 J. Pombo

8 Bernardo

9 D. Theodoridis

Coach · Sebastian Leto

Substitutes

15 · A. Anagnostopoulos

1 · F. Roberts

33 · H. Sousa

26 · K. Polykratis

2 · K. Apostolakis

5 · A. Petkov

74 · K. Lampsias

44 · V. Manganas

7 · J. Antonisse

72 · A. Christopoulos

18 · G. Kyriopoulos

10 · G. Sousa

Panetolikos

4-2-3-1

99 Y. Kucherenko

35 C. Mavrias

2 G. Granath

8 K. Thymianis

15 C. Manrique

22 Esteban Diego

6 M. Nakamba

90 M. Opoku

11 S. Soumah

10 A. Bassi

20 Y. Badji

Coach · Giannis Anastasiou

Substitutes

23 · V. Xenopoulos

4 · E. Olsson

65 · A. Apostolopoulos

5 · A. Prodromitis

45 · D. Galiatsos

77 · E. Nikolaou

19 · A. Bregou

28 · L. Kojic

12 · M. Djenepo

14 · K. Aleksic

7 · L. Smyrlis

9 · M. Mejia

Our number · kifisia winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make Kifisia a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kifisia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kifisia win	40%	50%	−11
Draw	31%	28%	+4
Panetolikos win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Kifisia or draw	71%	78%	−7
Kifisia clean sheet	36%	–	–
Panetolikos clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.1 9.0 5.5 1 11.2 14.5 6.7 2.3 2 7.9 8.0 4.1 3 3.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kifisia down, Panetolikos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,231 Super League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.9% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kifisia at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Panetolikos away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Kifisia, 1.03 for Panetolikos. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PAN 0–1 KIF · KIF 0–0 PAN · PAN 2–1 KIF · KIF 1–1 PAN

Form · last six in Super League 1

KIFISIA

WDLLDW3–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

PANETOLIKOS

LWWWLL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	+10	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	PAOK	5	+7	12
4	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	+2	10
5	OFI	6	+1	10
6	Panetolikos	5	+1	9
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	−5	7
8	Iraklis 1908	5	−2	6
9	Kifisia	5	−3	5
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
11	Kalamata	5	−2	4
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Volos NFC	5	−5	2
14	Levadiakos	5	−9	1