Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

Kifisia 1–2 Aris Thessalonikis ARIS THESSALONIKIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aris Thessalonikis win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.556

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.521

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aris Thessalonikis win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aris Thessalonikis 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
1′KICK-OFF Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Kifisia
30′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Bruma · Aris Thessalonikis
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' S. Leto · Kifisia
33′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 8–19–72
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kifisia 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Aris Thessalonikis win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
34′32′: Bruma on the scoresheet for Aris Thessalonikis, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–73
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 8–19–73
45′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′SECOND HALF Kifisia 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis
47′HALF-TIME Kifisia 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kifisia 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Aris Thessalonikis win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Aris Thessalonikis win 29%)
54′Kifisia level it on 53′ through Ángelo Sagal. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–49–28
57′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 22–51–27
63′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
66′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Boško Šutalo · Aris Thessalonikis
71′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Aris Thessalonikis win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Othman Boussaid · Off: Bruma
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Rafa Mir · Off: Tino Kadewere
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kifisia · On: Apóstolos Christópoulos · Off: dimitrios theodoridis
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kifisia · On: Georgios Kyriopoulos · Off: Jeremy Antonisse Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kifisia · On: Georgios Kyriopoulos · Off: Ángelo Sagal
78′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–75–14
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Roshon van Eijma · Kifisia
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Benjamin Garré · Aris Thessalonikis
83′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Aris Thessalonikis win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Fabiano Leismann · Aris Thessalonikis
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kifisia · On: Gerson Liliano Saches Sousa · Off: Jorge Pombo Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kifisia · On: Bernardo Martins · Off: Jeremy Antonisse Corrected
89′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Kifisia 1–2 Aris Thessalonikis
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Aris Thessalonikis win: 39% at kick-off, 96% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Aris Thessalonikis win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
90′Benjamin Garré scores for Aris Thessalonikis on 89′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–3–97
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Kifisia · On: Jordi Mboula · Off: Seedy Jagne Corrected
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Aris Thessalonikis win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Fredrik Jensen · Off: Christian Kouamé
95′1–2 at the end. Our 39% on Aris Thessalonikis comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Noah Fadiga · Off: Benjamin Garré
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Noah Fadiga · Off: Benjamin Garré
FTFULL TIME Kifisia 1–2 Aris Thessalonikis
FTKifisia 1–2 Aris Thessalonikis · Aris Thessalonikis win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aris Thessalonikis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kifisia 30%, draw 31%, Aris Thessalonikis 39%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Kifisia v Aris ThessalonikisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kifisia win30%

Draw31%

Aris Thessalonikis win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueApostolos Nikolaidis Stadium

RefereeFotios Daoulas

Line-ups

Kifisia

4-2-3-1

Aris Thessalonikis

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kifisia

Aris Thessalonikis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	−4	10
9	Kifisia	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kifisia

4-2-3-1

99 M. Ramírez

48 Tiago Manso

34 C. Jolibois

24 R. van Eijma

23 L. Abanda

19 I. Jagne

17 K. Roukounakis

28 Á. Sagal

6 Jorge Pombo

7 J. Antonisse

9 Dimitris Theodoridis

Coach · S. Leto

Substitutes

72 · A. Christópoulos

2 · K. Apostolakis

33 · Hugo Sousa

18 · G. Kyriopoulos

44 · Vangelis Manganas

11 · Jordi Mboula

5 · A. Petkov

26 · K. Polykratis

1 · F. Roberts

10 · Gerson Sousa

8 · Bernardo Martins

15 · A. Anagnostopoulos

Aris Thessalonikis

4-2-3-1

33 Ricardo Velho

2 J. Pétris

4 Fabiano

44 B. Šutalo

3 O. Richards

18 M. Hongla

10 U. Račić

7 B. Garré

8 C. Kouamé

77 Bruma

9 T. Kadewere

Coach · M. Grigoriou

Substitutes

20 · T. Dele-Bashiru

24 · Apostolos Barbopoulos

49 · O. Boussaid

41 · Konstantinos Charoupas

27 · N. Fadiga

6 · K. Galanopoulos

97 · F. Jensen

21 · L. Majkić

17 · Rafa Mir

14 · D. Sanoussi

22 · M. Voriazidis

Our number · aris thessalonikis winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Aris Thessalonikis a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis~~1.09 – 1.28

~~Form · Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~9 v 5

~~The market · Aris Thessalonikis win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aris Thessalonikis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kifisia win	30%	31%	−1
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Aris Thessalonikis win	39%	41%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	51%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−9
Kifisia or draw	61%	59%	+2
Kifisia clean sheet	28%	–	–
Aris Thessalonikis clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 11.3 10.4 7.7 3.3 1 8.7 14.4 8.1 3.5 2 5.6 7.0 4.4 3 2.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kifisia down, Aris Thessalonikis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,237 Super League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kifisia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Kifisia, 1.28 for Aris Thessalonikis. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARI 1–1 KIF · KIF 0–1 ARI · KIF 0–1 ARI · ARI 1–1 KIF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug

KIFISIA

DLLDWW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

ARIS THESSALONIKIS

WWLLDW3–2 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	6	+9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	+3	13
4	PAOK	6	+5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	−4	10
6	OFI	6	+1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	−1	9
9	Kifisia	6	−1	8
10	Kalamata	6	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Levadiakos	7	−11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0