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Kalamata v OFI

Kalamata

4–3Full time

OFI

Super League 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Dimotiko Stadio Paralias

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Kalamata 4–3 OFI KALAMATA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kalamata win~~44%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.467

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.669

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kalamata win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kalamata was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Kalamata v OFI
14′Kalamata find the net on 14′. 0–0 · 43–29–29
15′We published Kalamata at 44%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–12
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Kalamata 1–0 OFI · David Kurminowski
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Djibril Diarra · Kalamata
19′We published Kalamata at 44%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
19′18′: David Kurminowski on the scoresheet for Kalamata, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Kalamata 2–0 OFI
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 89% now
24′We published Kalamata at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Kalamata · On: Argyrios Liatsikouras · Off: Djibril Diarra
45′HALF-TIME Kalamata 2–0 OFI
45′SECOND HALF Kalamata 2–0 OFI
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Zisis Karachalios · OFI
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' OFI · On: Klidman Lilo · Off: Nikolaos Christogeorgos
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' OFI · On: Achilleas Poungouras · Off: Dimitris Nikolaou
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' OFI · On: Athanasios Androutsos · Off: Georgios Kanellopoulos
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
50′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
55′We published Kalamata at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
58′We published Kalamata at 44%. Our model now makes it 77%. 2–1 · 77–18–5
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kalamata 2–1 OFI
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
59′OFI pull one back on 58′ through Thiago Nuss. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–5
60′David Kurminowski scores for Kalamata on 59′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
60′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–4–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kalamata 3–1 OFI · David Kurminowski
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' David Kurminowski · Kalamata
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kalamata · On: Arnór Sigurðsson · Off: Ahmad Mendes Moreira
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kalamata · On: Jovanny Bolivar · Off: David Kurminowski
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' OFI · On: Lorenzo Dickmann · Off: Konstantinos Kostoulas
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro · Kalamata
75′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 85–13–2
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kalamata 3–2 OFI
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
76′75′: Kenan Kodro on the scoresheet for OFI, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 86–13–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kalamata · On: Julián Bonetto · Off: Kenneth Vargas
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kalamata · On: J. Cataldi · Off: Erik Hamza
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' OFI · On: Giannis Theodosoulakis · Off: Anastasios Chatzigiovanis
85′We said Kalamata at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–3 · 9–84–7
85′OFI level it on 84′ through Thiago Nuss. 3–3. 3–3 · 9–84–7
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kalamata 3–3 OFI
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Kalamata win 9%)
86′11 shots for Kalamata, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 3–3 · 8–86–6
86′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 8–86–6
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Thiago Nuss · OFI
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Zisis Karachalios · OFI
91′We said Kalamata at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–92–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Julio Alonso · Kalamata
93′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Giannis Theodosoulakis · OFI
95′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 99–1–0
95′Arnór Sigurðsson scores for Kalamata on 90′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Kalamata 4–3 OFI
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Kalamata win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Kalamata win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Kalamata 4–3 OFI
FTKalamata 4–3 OFI · Kalamata win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kalamata are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalamata 44%, draw 27%, OFI 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Kalamata v OFIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kalamata win44%

Draw27%

OFI win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueDimotiko Stadio Paralias

RefereeEleftherios Katopis

Line-ups

Kalamata

4-2-3-1

OFI

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalamata

OFI

6Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · Super League 1

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	OFI	6	+1	10
10	Kalamata	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kalamata

4-2-3-1

40 N. Vasiljević

22 P. Kaloutsikidis

4 S. Stroungis

97 Rodrigues

17 Julio Alonso

23 G. Piñeiro

6 D. Diarra

77 K. Vargas

24 E. Hamza

20 A. Mendes Moreira

91 D. Kurminowski

Coach · Panagiotis Christofileas

Substitutes

11 · Josete Miranda

8 · A. Liatsikouras

44 · A. Guessand

26 · P. Ginis

10 · A. Sigurðsson

19 · M. J. Bakayoko

9 · J. Bolívar

32 · J. Bonetto

7 · J. Cataldi

12 · I. Chatzitheodoridis

1 · I. Gelios

29 · U. Ignjatović

OFI

3-4-2-1

31 N. Christogeorgos

5 K. Kostoulas

43 D. Nikolaou

2 K. Krizmanić

17 Borja González

6 Z. Karachalios

8 G. Kanellópoulos

3 N. Athanasiou

18 T. Nuss

7 T. Chatzigiovanis

19 K. Kodro

Coach · C. Kontis

Substitutes

14 · T. Androutsos

21 · G. Apostolakis

41 · A. Bouchalakis

24 · L. Dickmann

90 · Pavlos Kenourgiakis

13 · P. Katsikas

52 · Konstantinos Lagoudakis

1 · K. Lilo

15 · A. Poungouras

30 · T. Romano

71 · Thanasis Sitmalidis

46 · G. Theodosoulakis

Our number · kalamata winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

44% The market33%

Us44%

~~Market~~33%

We make Kalamata a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalamata v OFI~~1.62 – 1.27

~~Form · Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~10 v 6

~~The market · Kalamata win~~33% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kalamata win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 44% now. The market has gone from 38% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalamata win	44%	33%	+11
Draw	27%	30%	−3
OFI win	29%	37%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	46%	+9
Both teams to score	58%	52%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	79%	71%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	33%	27%	+6
Kalamata or draw	71%	63%	+8
Kalamata clean sheet	29%	–	–
OFI clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 5.7 4.5 1 7.8 12.5 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 8.9 5.5 2.4 3 4.0 4.9 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalamata down, OFI across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,237 Super League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2019/20.

Home and away form

Kalamata at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). OFI away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Kalamata, 1.27 for OFI. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2019/20

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2019/20.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug

KALAMATA

LLDWLW2–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

OFI

WLWWDL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	6	+9	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	Olympiakos Piraeus	6	+3	13
4	PAOK	6	+5	12
5	Aris Thessalonikis	6	−4	10
6	OFI	6	+1	10
7	Iraklis 1908	6	0	9
8	Panetolikos	6	−1	9
9	Kifisia	6	−1	8
10	Kalamata	6	0	7
11	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Levadiakos	7	−11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0