Iraklis 1908 v Levadiakos prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Iraklis 1908 2–0 Levadiakos LEVADIAKOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levadiakos win~~36%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.635

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.535

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levadiakos win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Iraklis 1908 v Levadiakos
2′Little has changed for our model: Levadiakos 36% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
5′Little has changed for our model: Levadiakos 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Levadiakos win 32%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Levadiakos · On: Ognjen Ožegović · Off: Moses David Cobnan
45′SECOND HALF Iraklis 1908 0–0 Levadiakos
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Iraklis 1908 · On: Xande Silva · Off: Ivi López
46′HALF-TIME Iraklis 1908 0–0 Levadiakos
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Xande Silva · Iraklis 1908
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Iraklis 1908 1–0 Levadiakos
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Levadiakos · On: Adrian Sut · Off: Giorgos Nikas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Levadiakos · On: Mahamadou Balde · Off: Agustin Urzi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Iraklis 1908 · On: Marco Krainz · Off: Vassilis Sourlis
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Iraklis 1908 1–0 Levadiakos
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Iraklis 1908 1–0 Levadiakos · Rob Nizet
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Iraklis 1908 2–0 Levadiakos · Rob Nizet
71′⚽ GOAL · 72' Iraklis 1908 2–0 Levadiakos · Marco Krainz
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Levadiakos · On: Juan Bauza · Off: Dimitrios Emmanouilidis
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Levadiakos · On: Octavian Popescu · Off: Georgios Vrakas
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Iraklis 1908 · On: Sofian Chakla · Off: Carles Soria
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Iraklis 1908 · On: Nikos Anastasiadis · Off: Rob Nizet
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Iraklis 1908 · On: Vitor Meer · Off: Pedro Marques
FTFULL TIME Iraklis 1908 2–0 Levadiakos
FTIraklis 1908 2–0 Levadiakos · Levadiakos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Iraklis 1908 win35%

Draw29%

Levadiakos win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueKaftanzoglio Stadio

RefereeAngelos Evangelou

Line-ups

Iraklis 1908

3-4-2-1

Levadiakos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Iraklis 1908

Levadiakos

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Iraklis 1908	5	−2	6
14	Levadiakos	5	−9	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Iraklis 1908

3-4-2-1

33 G. Athanasiadis

2 P. Vouros

21 Pina

69 Y. Roche

30 C. Soria

90 V. Sourlis

8 N. Radoja

31 Nanu

11 I. Lopez

18 R. Nizet

43 P. Marques

Coach · Walter Mazzarri

Substitutes

16 · P. Tsintotas

44 · R. Lauritsen

4 · S. Chakla

23 · D. Munoz

3 · Vitor Meer

27 · M. Krainz

14 · J. Hromada

6 · C. Rodriguez

17 · N. Anastasiadis

12 · X. Silva

7 · E. Koljic

9 · K. Kushta

Levadiakos

4-2-3-1

55 N. Eliasi

2 A. Pantea

24 P. Liagas

4 J. Panzo

3 M. Vichos

8 G. Nikas

18 I. Kosti

11 A. Urzi

77 G. Vrakas

17 D. Emmanouilidis

99 M. D. Cobnan

Coach · Elias Charalambous

Substitutes

33 · L. Anacker

14 · G. Manthatis

95 · N. Tsaras

15 · A. Sut

20 · K. Goumas

6 · M. Elneny

7 · J. Bauza

66 · M. Ndiaye

9 · O. Ozegovic

30 · O. Popescu

25 · A. Badji

21 · M. Balde

Our number · levadiakos winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

36% The market29%

Us36%

~~Market~~29%

We make Levadiakos a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · levadiakos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 28% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iraklis 1908 win	35%	40%	−5
Draw	29%	31%	−2
Levadiakos win	36%	29%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%	+10
Both teams to score	54%	47%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	65%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	28%	21%	+7
Iraklis 1908 or draw	64%	71%	−7
Iraklis 1908 clean sheet	27%	–	–
Levadiakos clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.9 7.9 6.3 2.9 1 7.8 13.4 7.9 3.6 2 6.1 7.8 5.2 2.4 3 2.8 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iraklis 1908 down, Levadiakos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,231 Super League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.9% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Iraklis 1908 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Levadiakos away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Iraklis 1908, 1.35 for Levadiakos. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League 1

IRAKLIS 1908

LDWDD0–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

LEVADIAKOS

LLLLDL0–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	+10	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	PAOK	5	+7	12
4	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	+2	10
5	OFI	6	+1	10
6	Panetolikos	5	+1	9
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	−5	7
8	Iraklis 1908	5	−2	6
9	Kifisia	5	−3	5
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
11	Kalamata	5	−2	4
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Volos NFC	5	−5	2
14	Levadiakos	5	−9	1