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Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia

Iraklis 1908

2–3Full time

Kifisia

Super League 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Kaftanzoglio Stadio

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Iraklis 1908 2–3 Kifisia IRAKLIS 1908 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iraklis 1908 win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.659

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iraklis 1908 win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Iraklis 1908 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–24
1′KICK-OFF Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia
7′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–23–55
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Iraklis 1908 0–1 Kifisia
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Kifisia win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Iraklis 1908 win 46%)
8′A goal for Kifisia on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–23–55
9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Kifisia
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Iraklis 1908 win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Kifisia win 55%)
13′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Iraklis 1908 1–0 Kifisia
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
15′Sofian Chakla scores for Iraklis 1908 on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sofian Chakla · Iraklis 1908
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–7
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Iraklis 1908 1–1 Kifisia
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 40% now
34′33′: Jeremy Antonisse on the scoresheet for Kifisia, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–37–23
39′Kifisia have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 38–39–22
43′Kifisia have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 37–41–22
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Iraklis 1908 win 39%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′SECOND HALF Iraklis 1908 1–1 Kifisia
47′HALF-TIME Iraklis 1908 1–1 Kifisia
50′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
53′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Iraklis 1908 2–1 Kifisia
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 80% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Iraklis 1908 win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 46%)
54′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–16–4
55′Iraklis 1908 ahead on 54′ through Ivi López. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Iraklis 1908 · On: Marco Krainz · Off: Nemanja Radoja
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kifisia · On: Konstantinos Polykratis · Off: Leroy Abanda Mfomo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kifisia · On: Georgios Kyriopoulos · Off: Seedy Jagne
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kifisia · On: Bernardo Martins · Off: Apóstolos Christópoulos
68′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kifisia · On: Gerson Liliano Saches Sousa · Off: Bernardo Martins
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Iraklis 1908 · On: Xande Silva · Off: Ivi López Corrected
77′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 2–2 · 17–73–11
77′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 17–73–11
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Iraklis 1908 2–2 Kifisia
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Iraklis 1908 win 89%)
78′Jorge Pombo scores for Kifisia on 77′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 16–74–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
80′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–78–9
81′Kifisia have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 12–80–8
84′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–86–6
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Iraklis 1908 · On: Kylian Kaiboue · Off: Vassilis Sourlis
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Iraklis 1908 · On: Elvir Koljić · Off: Ivi López
85′We said Iraklis 1908 at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 2–3 · 0–8–92
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Iraklis 1908 2–3 Kifisia
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Iraklis 1908 win: 46% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Kifisia win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 87%)
86′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–7–93
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kifisia · On: Hugo Sousa · Off: Jeremy Antonisse
87′86′: Ángelo Sagal on the scoresheet for Kifisia, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–93
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Konstantinos Roukounakis · Kifisia
96′2–3 at the end. Our 46% on Iraklis 1908 misses, and the record keeps it. 2–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Iraklis 1908 2–3 Kifisia
FTIraklis 1908 2–3 Kifisia · Iraklis 1908 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iraklis 1908 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iraklis 1908 46%, draw 30%, Kifisia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Iraklis 1908 v KifisiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Iraklis 1908 win46%

Draw30%

Kifisia win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKaftanzoglio Stadio

RefereeAlexandros Tsakalidis

Line-ups

Iraklis 1908

3-4-2-1

Kifisia

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iraklis 1908

Kifisia

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Iraklis 1908	7	−1	9
10	Kifisia	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Iraklis 1908

3-4-2-1

33 G. Athanasiadis

2 P. Vouros

21 Piña

4 S. Chakla

30 Carles Soria

90 V. Sourlis

8 N. Radoja

31 Nanu

18 R. Nizet

11 Ivi López

43 Pedro Marques

Coach · W. Mazzarri

Substitutes

14 · J. Hromada

17 · Nikolaos Anastasiadis

22 · K. Kaïboué

7 · E. Koljić

27 · M. Krainz

9 · K. Kushta

23 · Daniel Muñoz Navas

12 · Xande Silva

6 · Carlis

44 · R. Lauritsen

16 · P. Tsintotas

97 · A. Žulevič

Kifisia

4-4-2

99 M. Ramírez

48 Tiago Manso

34 C. Jolibois

24 R. van Eijma

23 L. Abanda

28 Á. Sagal

19 I. Jagne

17 K. Roukounakis

7 J. Antonisse

72 A. Christópoulos

6 Jorge Pombo

Coach · S. Leto

Substitutes

8 · Bernardo Martins

10 · Gerson Sousa

1 · F. Roberts

26 · K. Polykratis

5 · A. Petkov

11 · Jordi Mboula

44 · Vangelis Manganas

18 · G. Kyriopoulos

33 · Hugo Sousa

2 · K. Apostolakis

15 · A. Anagnostopoulos

9 · Dimitris Theodoridis

Our number · iraklis 1908 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Iraklis 1908 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia~~1.45 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~8 v 10

~~The market · Iraklis 1908 win~~36% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iraklis 1908 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iraklis 1908 win	46%	36%	+10
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Kifisia win	24%	34%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	43%	43%	0
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	68%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	0
Iraklis 1908 or draw	76%	66%	+10
Iraklis 1908 clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kifisia clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.9 7.2 4.3 1 11.3 13.7 5.9 2 9.2 8.7 4.2 3 4.5 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iraklis 1908 down, Kifisia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,242 Super League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Iraklis 1908 at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Kifisia away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Iraklis 1908, 0.97 for Kifisia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 29 Aug

IRAKLIS 1908

DWDDWL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

KIFISIA

LLDWWL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	7	+13	18
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	7	+5	16
3	PAOK	7	+6	15
4	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
5	Aris Thessalonikis	7	−3	13
6	Kalamata	7	+1	10
7	OFI	7	0	10
8	Iraklis 1908	7	−1	9
9	Panetolikos	7	−3	9
10	Kifisia	7	−2	8
11	Asteras Tripolis	7	−8	5
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Levadiakos	7	−11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0