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Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos

Asteras Tripolis
0–0Full time
Levadiakos

Super League 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17
Asteras Tripolis 0–0 Levadiakos LEVADIAKOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Levadiakos win38%
The market said24%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.756
The market’s Brier score0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Levadiakos win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Levadiakos was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos
  4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Giannis Tsivelekidis · Levadiakos
  5. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Ognjen Ožegović · Levadiakos
  6. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Octavian Popescu · Levadiakos
  7. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Dimitrios Laskaris · Asteras Tripolis
  8. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Levadiakos win 35%)
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Asteras Tripolis 0–0 Levadiakos
  10. 46′HALF-TIME Asteras Tripolis 0–0 Levadiakos
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Levadiakos · On: Taxiarchis Filon · Off: Giannis Tsivelekidis
  12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Levadiakos · On: Georgios Vrakas · Off: Agustin Urzi
  13. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Levadiakos win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  14. 55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–46–28
  15. 59′We said Levadiakos at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 24–49–26
  16. 64′We said Levadiakos at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Asteras Tripolis · On: Franco Orozco · Off: Antonis Papakanellos
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Levadiakos · On: Dimitrios Emmanouilidis · Off: Octavian Popescu
  19. 72′We said Levadiakos at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
  20. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Levadiakos win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  21. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Julián Bartolo · Asteras Tripolis
  22. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Asteras Tripolis · On: Giannis Bouzoukis · Off: Eder González
  23. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Asteras Tripolis · On: Nikos Kaltsas · Off: Dimitrios Laskaris
  24. 78′We said Levadiakos at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
  25. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Levadiakos · On: Juan Bauza · Off: Ognjen Ožegović
  26. 83′We said Levadiakos at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
  27. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Levadiakos win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  28. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Franz Brorsson · Asteras Tripolis
  29. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Levadiakos · On: Adrian Sut · Off: Giannis Kosti
  30. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Asteras Tripolis · On: Ricardo Viana Filho · Off: Federico Macheda
  31. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Asteras Tripolis · On: Chrysanthos Gezos · Off: Alejandro·Mendez Garcia
  32. 90′We said Levadiakos at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  33. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Levadiakos
  34. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Asteras Tripolis win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
  35. 96′Asteras Tripolis ahead on 90′ through Nikos Kaltsas. 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  36. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Taxiarchis Filon · Levadiakos
  37. 97′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+7' Asteras Tripolis
  38. 97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Asteras Tripolis win 99%)
  39. FTFULL TIME Asteras Tripolis 0–0 Levadiakos
  40. FTAsteras Tripolis 0–0 Levadiakos · Levadiakos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levadiakos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asteras Tripolis 33%, draw 29%, Levadiakos 38%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Asteras Tripolis v LevadiakosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Asteras Tripolis win33%
Draw29%
Levadiakos win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueTheodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

RefereeAlexandros Megas

Line-ups

Asteras Tripolis

3-4-3

Levadiakos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asteras Tripolis

Levadiakos

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Super League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Asteras Tripolis7−85
13Levadiakos7−112

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Asteras Tripolis

3-4-3

1 N. Papadopoulos

74 D. Laskaris

16 F. Brorsson

6 K. Chrisopoulos

27 G. Kotsiras

21 D. Kourbelis

10 Eder González

28 Alex Méndez

7 J. Bartolo

9 F. Macheda

44 A. Papakanellos

Coach · G. Antonopoulos

Substitutes

61 · V. Chatziemmanouil

8 · I. Bouzoukis

14 · J. Chicco

64 · P. Deligiannidis

22 · Chrysanthos Gezos

91 · T. Kakadiaris

20 · N. Kaltsas

75 · B. Mbunga Kimpioka

19 · F. Orozco

32 · J. Silva

17 · A. Tereziou

39 · Ricardinho

Levadiakos

4-2-3-1

55 N. Eliasi

23 G. Kornezos

24 P. Liagas

37 I. Tsivelekidis

3 M. Vichos

66 M. Ndiaye

18 I. Kosti

11 A. Urzi

14 G. Manthatis

30 Octavian Popescu

9 O. Ožegović

Coach · I. Charalambous

Substitutes

77 · G. Vrakas

27 · G. Rodríguez

4 · Jonathan Panzo

2 · A. Pantea

33 · Lucas Anacker

8 · G. Nikas

20 · K. Goumas

22 · M. Filon

17 · D. Emmanouilidis

7 · Juan Francisco Bauza

21 · M. Balde

15 · A. Șut

Our number · levadiakos winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
38% The market24%
Us38%
Market24%

We make Levadiakos a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Asteras Tripolis v Levadiakos1.28 – 1.37
Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 30 AugW1 D2 L3 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 5 v 211 v 13
The market · Levadiakos win24% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:57
Our probability · Levadiakos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Asteras Tripolis win33%47%−14
Draw29%30%−1
Levadiakos win38%24%+14
Over 2.5 goals49%41%+8
Both teams to score55%47%+8
Over 1.5 goals75%66%+9
Over 3.5 goals28%22%+6
Asteras Tripolis or draw62%76%−14
Asteras Tripolis clean sheet26%––
Levadiakos clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 8.8 8.2 6.7 3.1 1 7.5 13.7 8.3 3.8 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.4 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Asteras Tripolis down, Levadiakos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.52 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsLEV 2–0 AST · LEV 3–1 AST · AST 1–1 LEV · LEV 1–0 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 30 Aug

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS

LLDDWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–5

LEVADIAKOS

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Panathinaikos7+1318
2Olympiakos Piraeus7+516
3PAOK7+615
4AEK Athens FC6+1314
5Aris Thessalonikis7−313
6Kalamata7+110
7OFI7010
8Iraklis 19087−19
9Panetolikos7−39
10Kifisia7−28
11Asteras Tripolis7−85
12Atromitos6−42
13Levadiakos7−112
14Volos NFC7−60

The competition's standings before kick-off.