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Aris Thessalonikis v Volos NFC

Aris Thessalonikis

3–2Full time

Volos NFC

Super League 1 · SUN 11 OCT · Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFC ARIS THESSALONIKIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aris Thessalonikis win~~56%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.290

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aris Thessalonikis win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aris Thessalonikis 56% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
3′Little has changed for our model: Aris Thessalonikis 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–18
9′Aris Thessalonikis ahead on 7′ through Christian Kouamé. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
11′Aris Thessalonikis ahead on 7′ through Christian Kouamé. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
13′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
16′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 Volos NFC · Fabiano Leismann
24′Fabiano Leismann scores for Aris Thessalonikis on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
27′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
29′Fabiano Leismann scores for Aris Thessalonikis on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Aris Thessalonikis win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
33′32′ and it is 2–0: Tino Kadewere on the scoresheet for Aris Thessalonikis. 2–0 · 96–3–1
33′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Tino Kadewere · Aris Thessalonikis
35′32′ and it is 2–0: Tino Kadewere on the scoresheet for Aris Thessalonikis. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
44′Aris Thessalonikis ahead on 43′ through Tino Kadewere. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 Volos NFC · Tino Kadewere
45′Aris Thessalonikis ahead on 43′ through Tino Kadewere. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′We said Aris Thessalonikis at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 Volos NFC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Volos NFC · On: Rémy Cabella · Off: Vasileios Grosdis Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Volos NFC · On: Francesc Regis · Off: Lazaros Lamprou Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Aris Thessalonikis 3–0 Volos NFC
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Boško Šutalo · Aris Thessalonikis
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 Volos NFC · Tino Kadewere
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 Volos NFC · Derek Agyakwa
60′Derek Agyakwa scores for Volos NFC on 58′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
61′Derek Agyakwa scores for Volos NFC on 58′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Volos NFC · On: Keidi Bare · Off: Dženis Burnić Corrected
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Fredrik Jensen · Off: Martin Hongla Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Othman Boussaid · Off: Bruma Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tino Kadewere · Aris Thessalonikis
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Giannis Kargas · Volos NFC
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Rafa Mir · Off: Tino Kadewere Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Noah Fadiga · Off: Benjamin Garré Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Volos NFC · On: Giorgos Charalampoglou · Off: Gustavo Furtado Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Volos NFC · On: Giorgos Charalampoglou · Off: Gustavo Furtado Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFC · Derek Agyakwa
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFC · Giannis Kargas
88′86′ and it is 3–2: Giannis Kargas on the scoresheet for Volos NFC. 3–2 · 98–2–0
90′86′ and it is 3–2: Giannis Kargas on the scoresheet for Volos NFC. 3–2 · 100–0–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Aris Thessalonikis · On: Konstantinos Galanopoulos · Off: Christian Kouamé Corrected
FTFULL TIME Aris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFC
FTAris Thessalonikis 3–2 Volos NFC · Aris Thessalonikis win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aris Thessalonikis win56%

Draw27%

Volos NFC win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueKleanthis Vikelidis Stadium

RefereeVassilis Fotias

Line-ups

Aris Thessalonikis

4-4-2

Volos NFC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aris Thessalonikis

Volos NFC

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	−5	7
13	Volos NFC	5	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aris Thessalonikis

4-4-2

33 R. Velho

2 J. Petris

4 Fabiano

44 B. Sutalo

3 O. Richards

7 B. Garre

18 M. Hongla

10 U. Racic

77 Bruma

8 C. Kouame

9 T. Kadewere

Coach · Michalis Grigoriou

Substitutes

1 · S. Dioudis

21 · L. Majkic

27 · N. Fadiga

6 · K. Galanopoulos

20 · T. Dele-Bashiru

22 · M. Voriazidis

97 · F. Jensen

17 · R. Mir

49 · O. Boussaid

80 · L. Moron

41 · K. Charoupas

34 · S. Palacios

Volos NFC

4-2-3-1

1 M. Siabanis

28 S. Katsikas

99 D. Agyakwa

4 G. Kargas

24 K. Lykourinos

27 D. Burnic

17 V. Grosdis

21 M. Gonzalez

8 M. Comba

7 L. Labrou

11 Gustavo Furtado

Coach · Konstantinos Bratsos

Substitutes

12 · Y. Lodygin

82 · A. Papathanasiou-Gerofokas

72 · E. Tasiouras

5 · R. Cabella

88 · K. Bare

89 · F. Refatllari

20 · Xesc

49 · G. Charalaboglou

Our number · aris thessalonikis winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

56% The market62%

Us56%

~~Market~~62%

We make Aris Thessalonikis a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aris thessalonikis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aris Thessalonikis win	56%	62%	−6
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Volos NFC win	17%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Aris Thessalonikis or draw	83%	85%	−2
Aris Thessalonikis clean sheet	44%	–	–
Volos NFC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.7 5.3 2.8 1 12.3 12.5 4.6 2 11.4 9.3 3.9 3 6.5 5.3 2.2 4 2.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aris Thessalonikis down, Volos NFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,231 Super League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.9% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 6 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Volos NFC away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Aris Thessalonikis, 0.83 for Volos NFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 14

~~Both scored~~6 of 14

~~Last meetings~~VOL 1–2 ARI · ARI 3–2 VOL · VOL 1–1 ARI · ARI 2–0 VOL

Form · last six in Super League 1

ARIS THESSALONIKIS

WWWLLD3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 0–0

VOLOS NFC

LLDDLL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	+10	15
2	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
3	PAOK	5	+7	12
4	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	+2	10
5	OFI	6	+1	10
6	Panetolikos	5	+1	9
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	−5	7
8	Iraklis 1908	5	−2	6
9	Kifisia	5	−3	5
10	Asteras Tripolis	6	−4	5
11	Kalamata	5	−2	4
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Volos NFC	5	−5	2
14	Levadiakos	5	−9	1