AEK Athens FC v Panetolikos prediction · Super League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

AEK Athens FC 5–0 Panetolikos AEK ATHENS FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AEK Athens FC win~~73%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.115

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AEK Athens FC win at 73%.
1′KICK-OFF AEK Athens FC v Panetolikos
2′Much as we predicted: AEK Athens FC was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–20–7
5′We published AEK Athens FC at 73%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
5′A goal for AEK Athens FC on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' AEK Athens FC 1–0 Panetolikos
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' AEK Athens FC win: 73% at kick-off, 92% now
24′We published AEK Athens FC at 73%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
24′23′: Aboubakary Koita on the scoresheet for AEK Athens FC, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' AEK Athens FC 2–0 Panetolikos
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' AEK Athens FC win: 73% at kick-off, 98% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Kwadwo Opoku · Panetolikos
39′We published AEK Athens FC at 73%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
39′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' AEK Athens FC 3–0 Panetolikos
40′AEK Athens FC ahead on 38′ through Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME AEK Athens FC 3–0 Panetolikos
46′SECOND HALF AEK Athens FC 3–0 Panetolikos
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Nikola Stajic · Panetolikos
52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Panetolikos · On: Kosta Aleksic · Off: Amine Bassi
52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Panetolikos · On: Vangelis Nikolaou · Off: Marvelous Nakamba
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Christian Manrique · Panetolikos
57′Barnabás Varga scores for AEK Athens FC on 56′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
57′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' AEK Athens FC 4–0 Panetolikos · Barnabás Varga (penalty)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AEK Athens FC · On: Răzvan Marin · Off: Kaan Kairinen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AEK Athens FC · On: Luka Jovic · Off: Barnabás Varga
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AEK Athens FC · On: Dereck Kutesa · Off: Petros Mantalos
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' AEK Athens FC · On: Oleksandr Zubkov · Off: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Panetolikos · On: Youssouph Badji · Off: Kwadwo Opoku
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Panetolikos · On: Moussa Djenepo · Off: Mateo Mejia
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AEK Athens FC · On: Charalampos Lykogiannis · Off: Stavros Pilios
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Panetolikos · On: Elias Olsson · Off: Novica Eraković
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' AEK Athens FC 5–0 Panetolikos
FTFULL TIME AEK Athens FC 5–0 Panetolikos
FTAEK Athens FC 5–0 Panetolikos · AEK Athens FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AEK Athens FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AEK Athens FC 73%, draw 19%, Panetolikos 7%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on AEK Athens FC v PanetolikosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AEK Athens FC win73%

Draw19%

Panetolikos win7%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAllwyn Arena

RefereeVasilios Fitsas

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC

4-4-2

Panetolikos

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AEK Athens FC

Panetolikos

4Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
9	Panetolikos	7	−3	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Foden nets hat-trick as Man City beat AEK AthensBBC Sport · 21 Oct 22:00 · Manchester City, AEK Athens FC

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC

4-4-2

91 A. Brignoli

12 L. Rota

2 H. Moukoudi

44 Filipe Relvas

3 S. Pilios

20 P. Mantalos

27 M. Vitális

6 K. Kairinen

11 A. Koita

19 B. Varga

90 Zini

Coach · M. Nikolić

Substitutes

8 · M. Gaćinović

41 · Marios Balamotis

9 · L. Jović

17 · Dimitrios Kaloskamis

7 · D. Kutesa

22 · C. Lykogiannis

18 · R. Marin

23 · João Mário

15 · M. Todorski

21 · D. Vida

10 · O. Zubkov

16 · K. Arriaga

Panetolikos

4-1-4-1

23 V. Xenopoulos

5 A. Prodromitis

28 L. Kojić

49 N. Stajić

15 Christian Manrique

6 M. Nakamba

90 K. Opoku

22 Diego Esteban

44 N. Eraković

10 A. Bassi

9 José Mateo Mejía Piedrahita

Coach · Y. Anastasiou

Substitutes

20 · Youssouph Badji

26 · Aristidis Albanis

14 · K. Aleksić

65 · A. Apostolopoulos

19 · A. Bregou

12 · M. Djenepo

77 · E. Nikolaou

4 · E. Olsson

21 · E. Papazois

1 · Michalis Pardalos

11 · S. Soumah

Our number · aek athens fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

73% The market83%

Us73%

~~Market~~83%

We make AEK Athens FC a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AEK Athens FC v Panetolikos~~2.16 – 0.55

~~Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 9~~4 v 9

~~The market · AEK Athens FC win~~83% · ours 73%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AEK Athens FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AEK Athens FC win	73%	83%	−10
Draw	19%	11%	+8
Panetolikos win	7%	5%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	66%	−15
Both teams to score	38%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	84%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	46%	−17
AEK Athens FC or draw	93%	95%	−2
AEK Athens FC clean sheet	58%	–	–
Panetolikos clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.3%

0123450 7.9 2.8 1 13.4 8.8 2.2 2 15.3 8.3 2.3 3 11.0 5.9 4 6.1 3.2 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+AEK Athens FC down, Panetolikos across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,242 Super League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AEK Athens FC at home: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Panetolikos away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for AEK Athens FC, 0.55 for Panetolikos. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAN 0–5 AEK · AEK 1–0 PAN · AEK 2–1 PAN · AEK 1–0 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League 1 this season · since 22 Aug

AEK ATHENS FC

WDWDWW4–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

PANETOLIKOS

WWLLLL2–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	7	+13	18
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	7	+5	16
3	PAOK	7	+6	15
4	AEK Athens FC	6	+13	14
5	Aris Thessalonikis	7	−3	13
6	Kalamata	7	+1	10
7	OFI	7	0	10
8	Iraklis 1908	7	−1	9
9	Panetolikos	7	−3	9
10	Kifisia	7	−2	8
11	Asteras Tripolis	7	−8	5
12	Atromitos	6	−4	2
13	Levadiakos	7	−11	2
14	Volos NFC	7	−6	0