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AEK Athens FC v OFI

AEK Athens FC

3–0Full time

OFI

Super League 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Allwyn Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI AEK ATHENS FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AEK Athens FC win~~72%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.122

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AEK Athens FC win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: AEK Athens FC was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–17–10
1′Much as we predicted: AEK Athens FC was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–17–10
29′We published AEK Athens FC at 72%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
39′We said AEK Athens FC at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 60%. 0–0 · 60–28–11 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
40′We published AEK Athens FC at 72%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' AEK Athens FC 1–0 OFI
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 60% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' AEK Athens FC 1–0 OFI · Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira (assist Lovro Majer)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 60% now
43′41′ and it is 1–0: Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira on the scoresheet for AEK Athens FC. 1–0 · 89–10–2
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 60% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 60% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
45′41′ and it is 1–0: Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira on the scoresheet for AEK Athens FC. 1–0 · 89–10–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' AEK Athens FC win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
45′SECOND HALF AEK Athens FC 1–0 OFI
47′SECOND HALF AEK Athens FC 1–0 OFI
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AEK Athens FC · On: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador · Off: Kaan Kairinen
65′🟥 RED CARD · 65' AEK Athens FC
65′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Aitor Cantalapiedra · OFI
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' AEK Athens FC · On: João Mário · Off: Dereck Kutesa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OFI · On: Thiago Nuss · Off: Taxiarchis Fountas
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' OFI · On: Giannis Apostolakis · Off: Andreas Bouchalakis
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' OFI · On: Anastasios Chatzigiovanis · Off: Kenan Kodro
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' OFI · On: Borja González · Off: Konstantinos Kostoulas
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' AEK Athens FC 2–0 OFI · Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' AEK Athens FC 2–0 OFI · Harold Moukoudi (assist Răzvan Marin)
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Lovro Majer · AEK Athens FC
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' AEK Athens FC · On: Mijat Gaćinović · Off: Luka Jovic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' AEK Athens FC · On: Martin Georgiev · Off: Llazaros Rota
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' AEK Athens FC · On: Milan Vitális · Off: Lovro Majer
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' OFI · On: Zisis Karachalios · Off: Athanasios Androutsos
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI · Harold Moukoudi
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI · Mijat Gaćinović
FTFULL TIME AEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI
FTAEK Athens FC 3–0 OFI · AEK Athens FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AEK Athens FC win72%

Draw19%

OFI win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Allwyn Arena

Referee · Georgios Kokkinos

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC

4-2-3-1

91 A. Brignoli

12 L. Rota

2 H. Moukoudi

44 F. Relvas

3 S. Pilo

6 K. Kairinen

18 R. Marin

14 L. Majer

11 A. Koita

7 D. Kutesa

9 L. Jovic

Coach · Marko Nikolic

Substitutes

41 · M. Balamotis

21 · D. Vida

22 · C. Lykogiannis

15 · M. Georgiev

5 · C. Alexiou

20 · P. Mantalos

8 · M. Gacinovic

16 · K. Arriaga

23 · Joao Mario

27 · M. Vitalis

10 · O. Zubkov

90 · Zini

OFI

3-4-3

31 N. Christogeorgos

5 K. Kostoulas

15 A. Poungouras

2 K. Krizmanic

24 L. Dickmann

14 A. Androutsos

41 A. Bouchalakis

3 N. Athanasiou

11 T. Fountas

19 K. Kodro

10 A. Cantalapiedra

Coach · Christos Kontis

Substitutes

13 · P. Katsikas

1 · K. Lilo

43 · D. Nikolaou

17 · B. Gonzalez

90 · P. Kenourgiakis

8 · G. Kanellopoulos

6 · Z. Karachalios

21 · I. Apostolakis

7 · A. Chatzigiovanis

18 · T. Nuss

46 · I. Theodosoulakis

30 · T. Romano

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC

4-2-3-1

91 A. Brignoli

12 L. Rota

2 H. Moukoudi

44 F. Relvas

3 S. Pilo

6 K. Kairinen

18 R. Marin

14 L. Majer

11 A. Koita

7 D. Kutesa

9 L. Jovic

Coach · Marko Nikolic

Substitutes

41 · M. Balamotis

21 · D. Vida

22 · C. Lykogiannis

15 · M. Georgiev

5 · C. Alexiou

20 · P. Mantalos

8 · M. Gacinovic

16 · K. Arriaga

23 · Joao Mario

27 · M. Vitalis

10 · O. Zubkov

90 · Zini

OFI

3-4-3

31 N. Christogeorgos

5 K. Kostoulas

15 A. Poungouras

2 K. Krizmanic

24 L. Dickmann

14 A. Androutsos

41 A. Bouchalakis

3 N. Athanasiou

11 T. Fountas

19 K. Kodro

10 A. Cantalapiedra

Coach · Christos Kontis

Substitutes

13 · P. Katsikas

1 · K. Lilo

43 · D. Nikolaou

17 · B. Gonzalez

90 · P. Kenourgiakis

8 · G. Kanellopoulos

6 · Z. Karachalios

21 · I. Apostolakis

7 · A. Chatzigiovanis

18 · T. Nuss

46 · I. Theodosoulakis

30 · T. Romano

Our number · aek athens fc winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

72% The market74%

Us72%

~~Market~~74%

We make AEK Athens FC a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aek athens fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 74% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AEK Athens FC win	72%	74%	−2
Draw	19%	16%	+2
OFI win	9%	9%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
AEK Athens FC or draw	91%	91%	0
AEK Athens FC clean sheet	48%	–	–
OFI clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%

0123450 5.8 2.5 1 9.9 8.9 2.9 2 12.5 9.0 3.3 3 9.7 7.0 2.6 4 5.8 4.2 5 2.8 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+AEK Athens FC down, OFI across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,229 Super League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AEK Athens FC at home: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). OFI away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for AEK Athens FC, 0.73 for OFI. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AEK 2–1 OFI · OFI 0–1 AEK · OFI 1–2 AEK · AEK 3–0 OFI

Form · last six in Super League 1

AEK ATHENS FC

DWDWDW1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

OFI

WWLWWD3–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	5	+10	15
2	PAOK	5	+7	12
3	AEK Athens FC	5	+10	11
4	OFI	5	+4	10
5	Olympiakos Piraeus	5	+2	10
6	Panetolikos	5	+1	9
7	Aris Thessalonikis	5	−5	7
8	Iraklis 1908	5	−2	6
9	Kifisia	5	−3	5
10	Kalamata	5	−2	4
11	Atromitos	5	−3	2
12	Asteras Tripolis	5	−5	2
13	Volos NFC	5	−5	2
14	Levadiakos	5	−9	1