Pelopas Kiatou v Miltiadis Pyrgos prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Pelopas Kiatou 1–1 Miltiadis Pyrgos PELOPAS KIATOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pelopas Kiatou win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.928

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pelopas Kiatou are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pelopas Kiatou 55%, draw 24%, Miltiadis Pyrgos 21%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Pelopas Kiatou v Miltiadis PyrgosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Pelopas Kiatou win55%

Draw24%

Miltiadis Pyrgos win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pelopas Kiatou

Miltiadis Pyrgos

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pelopas Kiatou	4	+4	9
3	Miltiadis Pyrgos	4	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pelopas kiatou winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Pelopas Kiatou a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pelopas Kiatou v Miltiadis Pyrgos~~1.98 – 1.14

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pelopas Kiatou win

Published at 49%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pelopas Kiatou win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Miltiadis Pyrgos win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Pelopas Kiatou or draw	79%	–	–
Pelopas Kiatou clean sheet	33%	–	–
Miltiadis Pyrgos clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.1 4.3 3.1 1 7.9 10.9 5.5 2.2 2 8.5 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 5.6 6.0 3.4 4 2.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pelopas Kiatou down, Miltiadis Pyrgos across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 350 Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games recently, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pelopas Kiatou at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Miltiadis Pyrgos away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Pelopas Kiatou, 1.14 for Miltiadis Pyrgos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PEL 0–0 MIL · MIL 0–0 PEL · PEL 1–4 MIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept

PELOPAS KIATOU

WLWW3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–0

MILTIADIS PYRGOS

WLWW1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iraklis Xylokastro	4	+6	10
2	Pelopas Kiatou	4	+4	9
3	Miltiadis Pyrgos	4	+2	9
4	Loutraki	4	+2	7
5	Asteras Amaliadas	4	+1	7
6	Korinthos	4	+1	5
7	Panthouriakos	4	−1	5
8	Panargiakos	4	0	4
9	Ermis Kiveriou	4	−3	4
10	Asteras Vlachioti	4	−3	2
11	Telos Agras	4	−3	1
12	Panthyreatikos	4	−6	1