Panargiakos v Ermis Kiveriou prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Panargiakos 0–0 Ermis Kiveriou PANARGIAKOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panargiakos win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panargiakos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panargiakos 51%, draw 27%, Ermis Kiveriou 22%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Panargiakos v Ermis KiveriouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Panargiakos win51%

Draw27%

Ermis Kiveriou win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panargiakos

Ermis Kiveriou

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Panargiakos	4	0	4
9	Ermis Kiveriou	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panargiakos winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Panargiakos a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panargiakos v Ermis Kiveriou~~1.65 – 0.99

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D4 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panargiakos win

Published at 43%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panargiakos win	51%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ermis Kiveriou win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Panargiakos or draw	78%	–	–
Panargiakos clean sheet	38%	–	–
Ermis Kiveriou clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 9.6 6.4 3.7 1 10.6 12.0 5.4 2 9.2 8.6 4.3 3 5.2 4.9 2.5 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panargiakos down, Ermis Kiveriou across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 350 Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games recently, across 350 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Panargiakos at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ermis Kiveriou away: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Panargiakos, 0.99 for Ermis Kiveriou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept

PANARGIAKOS

DDDD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

ERMIS KIVERIOU

DWLL2–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iraklis Xylokastro	4	+6	10
2	Pelopas Kiatou	4	+4	9
3	Miltiadis Pyrgos	4	+2	9
4	Loutraki	4	+2	7
5	Asteras Amaliadas	4	+1	7
6	Korinthos	4	+1	5
7	Panthouriakos	4	−1	5
8	Panargiakos	4	0	4
9	Ermis Kiveriou	4	−3	4
10	Asteras Vlachioti	4	−3	2
11	Telos Agras	4	−3	1
12	Panthyreatikos	4	−6	1