Loutraki v Iraklis Xylokastro prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LoutrakiDrawIraklis Xylokastro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Loutraki 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Loutraki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Loutraki 43%, draw 29%, Iraklis Xylokastro 28%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Loutraki v Iraklis XylokastroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Loutraki win43%

Draw29%

Iraklis Xylokastro win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Loutraki

Iraklis Xylokastro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · loutraki winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Loutraki a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Loutraki v Iraklis Xylokastro~~1.43 – 1.10

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Loutraki win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Loutraki win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Iraklis Xylokastro win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Loutraki or draw	72%	–	–
Loutraki clean sheet	34%	–	–
Iraklis Xylokastro clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.1 7.5 4.9 1 10.0 13.5 6.5 2.5 2 8.1 8.4 4.6 3 4.0 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Loutraki down, Iraklis Xylokastro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 355 Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games recently, across 355 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Loutraki at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Iraklis Xylokastro away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Loutraki, 1.10 for Iraklis Xylokastro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept

LOUTRAKI

LWDW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

IRAKLIS XYLOKASTRO

WWDW2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iraklis Xylokastro	4	+6	10
2	Pelopas Kiatou	5	+4	10
3	Miltiadis Pyrgos	5	+2	10
4	Asteras Amaliadas	5	+1	8
5	Loutraki	4	+2	7
6	Panargiakos	5	0	5
7	Korinthos	5	−2	5
8	Panthouriakos	5	−2	5
9	Ermis Kiveriou	5	−3	5
10	Telos Agras	5	0	4
11	Panthyreatikos	5	−5	4
12	Asteras Vlachioti	5	−3	3