Iraklis Xylokastro v Asteras Vlachioti prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 03:22

Iraklis Xylokastro 3–1 Asteras Vlachioti IRAKLIS XYLOKASTRO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iraklis Xylokastro win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.325

Corrected on 23 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 2–0; the score is now 3–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iraklis Xylokastro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iraklis Xylokastro 54%, draw 25%, Asteras Vlachioti 22%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Iraklis Xylokastro v Asteras VlachiotiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Iraklis Xylokastro win54%

Draw25%

Asteras Vlachioti win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iraklis Xylokastro

Asteras Vlachioti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iraklis xylokastro winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Iraklis Xylokastro a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iraklis Xylokastro v Asteras Vlachioti~~1.84 – 1.07

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 2~~1 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iraklis Xylokastro win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Asteras Vlachioti win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Iraklis Xylokastro or draw	78%	–	–
Iraklis Xylokastro clean sheet	36%	–	–
Asteras Vlachioti clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.6 5.2 3.4 1 9.2 11.4 5.4 2.0 2 9.0 8.9 4.7 3 5.6 5.5 2.9 4 2.7 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iraklis Xylokastro down, Asteras Vlachioti across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 344 Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.9% of games recently, across 344 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Iraklis Xylokastro at home: 4.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 1). Asteras Vlachioti away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Iraklis Xylokastro, 1.07 for Asteras Vlachioti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept

IRAKLIS XYLOKASTRO

WWD2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

ASTERAS VLACHIOTI

LDD2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iraklis Xylokastro	3	+4	7
2	Miltiadis Pyrgos	3	0	6
3	Pelopas Kiatou	3	0	6
4	Panthouriakos	3	+1	5
5	Ermis Kiveriou	3	+1	4
6	Korinthos	3	+1	4
7	Loutraki	3	+1	4
8	Asteras Amaliadas	3	−1	4
9	Panargiakos	3	0	3
10	Asteras Vlachioti	3	−1	2
11	Telos Agras	3	−2	1
12	Panthyreatikos	3	−4	1