Ermis Kiveriou v Pelopas Kiatou prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Ermis Kiveriou 0–4 Pelopas Kiatou ERMIS KIVERIOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ermis Kiveriou win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ermis Kiveriou are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ermis Kiveriou 51%, draw 24%, Pelopas Kiatou 24%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ermis Kiveriou v Pelopas KiatouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ermis Kiveriou win51%

Draw24%

Pelopas Kiatou win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ermis Kiveriou

Pelopas Kiatou

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pelopas Kiatou	3	0	6
5	Ermis Kiveriou	3	+1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ermis kiveriou winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Ermis Kiveriou a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ermis Kiveriou v Pelopas Kiatou~~1.89 – 1.23

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ermis Kiveriou win	51%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Pelopas Kiatou win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Ermis Kiveriou or draw	76%	–	–
Ermis Kiveriou clean sheet	30%	–	–
Pelopas Kiatou clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 4.6 3.5 1 7.5 11.1 6.0 2.6 2 7.8 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.9 5.7 3.5 4 2.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ermis Kiveriou down, Pelopas Kiatou across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 344 Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.9% of games recently, across 344 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ermis Kiveriou at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Pelopas Kiatou away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Ermis Kiveriou, 1.23 for Pelopas Kiatou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept

ERMIS KIVERIOU

DWL2–2 · 3–1 · 2–3

PELOPAS KIATOU

WLW3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iraklis Xylokastro	3	+4	7
2	Miltiadis Pyrgos	3	0	6
3	Pelopas Kiatou	3	0	6
4	Panthouriakos	3	+1	5
5	Ermis Kiveriou	3	+1	4
6	Korinthos	3	+1	4
7	Loutraki	3	+1	4
8	Asteras Amaliadas	3	−1	4
9	Panargiakos	3	0	3
10	Asteras Vlachioti	3	−1	2
11	Telos Agras	3	−2	1
12	Panthyreatikos	3	−4	1