Asteras Amaliadas v Panthouriakos prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Asteras Amaliadas 3–1 Panthouriakos ASTERAS AMALIADAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asteras Amaliadas win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Asteras Amaliadas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asteras Amaliadas 46%, draw 28%, Panthouriakos 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Asteras Amaliadas v PanthouriakosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Asteras Amaliadas win46%

Draw28%

Panthouriakos win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asteras Amaliadas

Panthouriakos

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Panthouriakos	3	+1	5
8	Asteras Amaliadas	3	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asteras amaliadas winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Asteras Amaliadas a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asteras Amaliadas v Panthouriakos~~1.51 – 1.05

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 5~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asteras Amaliadas win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Panthouriakos win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Asteras Amaliadas or draw	75%	–	–
Asteras Amaliadas clean sheet	36%	–	–
Panthouriakos clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.8 7.0 4.4 1 10.4 13.0 6.1 2.2 2 8.6 8.6 4.5 3 4.5 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asteras Amaliadas down, Panthouriakos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 344 Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.9% of games recently, across 344 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Asteras Amaliadas at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Panthouriakos away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Asteras Amaliadas, 1.05 for Panthouriakos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 7 this season · since 27 Sept

ASTERAS AMALIADAS

WLD2–1 · 2–4 · 0–0

PANTHOURIAKOS

DWD0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iraklis Xylokastro	3	+4	7
2	Miltiadis Pyrgos	3	0	6
3	Pelopas Kiatou	3	0	6
4	Panthouriakos	3	+1	5
5	Ermis Kiveriou	3	+1	4
6	Korinthos	3	+1	4
7	Loutraki	3	+1	4
8	Asteras Amaliadas	3	−1	4
9	Panargiakos	3	0	3
10	Asteras Vlachioti	3	−1	2
11	Telos Agras	3	−2	1
12	Panthyreatikos	3	−4	1