Tilikratis v Panagriniakos prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Tilikratis 4–0 Panagriniakos TILIKRATIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tilikratis win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tilikratis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tilikratis 51%, draw 25%, Panagriniakos 24%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Tilikratis v PanagriniakosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tilikratis win51%

Draw25%

Panagriniakos win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tilikratis

Panagriniakos

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tilikratis	3	−3	3
10	Panagriniakos	3	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tilikratis winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Tilikratis a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tilikratis v Panagriniakos~~1.64 – 1.02

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tilikratis win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Panagriniakos win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Tilikratis or draw	76%	–	–
Tilikratis clean sheet	37%	–	–
Panagriniakos clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 7.9 7.3 3.8 1 11.5 11.3 5.7 2.0 2 9.2 8.9 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tilikratis down, Panagriniakos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 483 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tilikratis at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Panagriniakos away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Tilikratis, 1.02 for Panagriniakos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TIL 4–1 PAN · PAN 0–3 TIL · PAN 2–0 TIL · TIL 2–0 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 26 Sept

TILIKRATIS

WLL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

PANAGRINIAKOS

LLW0–2 · 0–5 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atromitos Patras	3	+13	9
2	Preveza	3	+7	9
3	Panegialios	3	+5	9
4	Panachaiki FC	3	+6	6
5	Plataria	3	0	4
6	Aris Filiates	3	0	3
7	Agios Matthaios	3	−2	3
8	Tilikratis	3	−3	3
9	Lefkimmi	3	−5	3
10	Panagriniakos	3	−6	3
11	Pallixouriakos	3	−3	1
12	Levante	3	−12	0