Panagriniakos v Agios Matthaios prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PanagriniakosDrawAgios Matthaios

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Panagriniakos 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panagriniakos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panagriniakos 43%, draw 24%, Agios Matthaios 33%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Panagriniakos v Agios MatthaiosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Panagriniakos win43%

Draw24%

Agios Matthaios win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panagriniakos

Agios Matthaios

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Agios Matthaios	4	−6	3
11	Panagriniakos	4	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panagriniakos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Panagriniakos a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panagriniakos v Agios Matthaios~~1.53 – 1.32

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panagriniakos win	43%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Agios Matthaios win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Panagriniakos or draw	67%	–	–
Panagriniakos clean sheet	28%	–	–
Agios Matthaios clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.5 7.9 5.1 2.3 1 9.2 11.2 7.2 3.2 2 6.9 8.4 5.3 2.4 3 3.6 4.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panagriniakos down, Agios Matthaios across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 489 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Panagriniakos at home: 1.50 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 2). Agios Matthaios away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Panagriniakos, 1.32 for Agios Matthaios. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AGI 2–1 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 26 Sept

PANAGRINIAKOS

LLWL0–2 · 0–5 · 3–2 · 0–4

AGIOS MATTHAIOS

LWLL0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panegialios	4	+9	12
2	Atromitos Patras	4	+13	10
3	Preveza	4	+7	10
4	Panachaiki FC	4	+7	9
5	Plataria	4	+1	7
6	Tilikratis	4	+1	6
7	Pallixouriakos	4	−2	4
8	Aris Filiates	4	−1	3
9	Agios Matthaios	4	−6	3
10	Lefkimmi	4	−6	3
11	Panagriniakos	4	−10	3
12	Levante	4	−13	0