Pallixouriakos v Tilikratis prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PallixouriakosDrawTilikratis

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pallixouriakos 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pallixouriakos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pallixouriakos 44%, draw 26%, Tilikratis 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Pallixouriakos v TilikratisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pallixouriakos win44%

Draw26%

Tilikratis win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pallixouriakos

Tilikratis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tilikratis	4	+1	6
7	Pallixouriakos	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pallixouriakos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Pallixouriakos a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pallixouriakos v Tilikratis~~1.48 – 1.17

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~7 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pallixouriakos win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Tilikratis win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Pallixouriakos or draw	70%	–	–
Pallixouriakos clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tilikratis clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.9 8.6 4.9 2.0 1 10.7 11.7 6.7 2.7 2 7.7 8.4 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pallixouriakos down, Tilikratis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 489 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Pallixouriakos at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Tilikratis away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Pallixouriakos, 1.17 for Tilikratis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 27 Sept

PALLIXOURIAKOS

DLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2

TILIKRATIS

WLLW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panegialios	4	+9	12
2	Atromitos Patras	4	+13	10
3	Preveza	4	+7	10
4	Panachaiki FC	4	+7	9
5	Plataria	4	+1	7
6	Tilikratis	4	+1	6
7	Pallixouriakos	4	−2	4
8	Aris Filiates	4	−1	3
9	Agios Matthaios	4	−6	3
10	Lefkimmi	4	−6	3
11	Panagriniakos	4	−10	3
12	Levante	4	−13	0