Pallixouriakos v Aris Filiates prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Pallixouriakos 3–2 Aris Filiates PALLIXOURIAKOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pallixouriakos win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pallixouriakos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pallixouriakos 44%, draw 25%, Aris Filiates 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Pallixouriakos v Aris FiliatesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pallixouriakos win44%

Draw25%

Aris Filiates win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pallixouriakos

Aris Filiates

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aris Filiates	3	0	3
11	Pallixouriakos	3	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pallixouriakos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Pallixouriakos a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pallixouriakos v Aris Filiates~~1.52 – 1.22

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~11 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pallixouriakos win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Aris Filiates win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Pallixouriakos or draw	69%	–	–
Pallixouriakos clean sheet	31%	–	–
Aris Filiates clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.4 8.0 4.9 2.1 1 9.9 11.6 6.8 2.9 2 7.5 8.5 5.0 2.1 3 3.9 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pallixouriakos down, Aris Filiates across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 483 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Pallixouriakos at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 1). Aris Filiates away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Pallixouriakos, 1.22 for Aris Filiates. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 27 Sept

PALLIXOURIAKOS

DLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

ARIS FILIATES

WLL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atromitos Patras	3	+13	9
2	Preveza	3	+7	9
3	Panegialios	3	+5	9
4	Panachaiki FC	3	+6	6
5	Plataria	3	0	4
6	Aris Filiates	3	0	3
7	Agios Matthaios	3	−2	3
8	Tilikratis	3	−3	3
9	Lefkimmi	3	−5	3
10	Panagriniakos	3	−6	3
11	Pallixouriakos	3	−3	1
12	Levante	3	−12	0