Atromitos Patras v Preveza prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Atromitos Patras 1–1 Preveza ATROMITOS PATRAS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atromitos Patras win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.969

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atromitos Patras are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atromitos Patras 57%, draw 22%, Preveza 21%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Atromitos Patras v PrevezaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atromitos Patras win57%

Draw22%

Preveza win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atromitos Patras

Preveza

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atromitos patras winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Atromitos Patras a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atromitos Patras v Preveza~~1.91 – 1.05

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atromitos Patras win	57%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Preveza win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Atromitos Patras or draw	79%	–	–
Atromitos Patras clean sheet	36%	–	–
Preveza clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 6.1 5.7 3.0 1 10.1 10.2 5.2 2 9.3 9.2 4.8 3 5.9 5.8 3.0 4 2.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atromitos Patras down, Preveza across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 483 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Atromitos Patras at home: 6.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Preveza away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Atromitos Patras, 1.05 for Preveza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 26 Sept

ATROMITOS PATRAS

WWW7–0 · 5–0 · 1–0

PREVEZA

WWW2–0 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atromitos Patras	3	+13	9
2	Preveza	3	+7	9
3	Panegialios	3	+5	9
4	Panachaiki FC	3	+6	6
5	Plataria	3	0	4
6	Aris Filiates	3	0	3
7	Agios Matthaios	3	−2	3
8	Tilikratis	3	−3	3
9	Lefkimmi	3	−5	3
10	Panagriniakos	3	−6	3
11	Pallixouriakos	3	−3	1
12	Levante	3	−12	0