Agios Matthaios v Panegialios prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Agios Matthaios 0–4 Panegialios PANEGIALIOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panegialios win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Panegialios just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Agios Matthaios 36%, draw 27%, Panegialios 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Agios Matthaios v PanegialiosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Agios Matthaios win36%

Draw27%

Panegialios win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Agios Matthaios

Panegialios

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Panegialios	3	+5	9
7	Agios Matthaios	3	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · panegialios winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Panegialios a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Agios Matthaios v Panegialios~~1.24 – 1.25

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Agios Matthaios win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Panegialios win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Agios Matthaios or draw	64%	–	–
Agios Matthaios clean sheet	30%	–	–
Panegialios clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 9.2 10.3 6.4 2.8 1 10.3 12.3 7.4 3.2 2 6.5 7.5 4.6 3 2.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Agios Matthaios down, Panegialios across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 483 Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Agios Matthaios at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 1). Panegialios away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Agios Matthaios, 1.25 for Panegialios. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 this season · since 27 Sept

AGIOS MATTHAIOS

LWL0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

PANEGIALIOS

WWW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atromitos Patras	3	+13	9
2	Preveza	3	+7	9
3	Panegialios	3	+5	9
4	Panachaiki FC	3	+6	6
5	Plataria	3	0	4
6	Aris Filiates	3	0	3
7	Agios Matthaios	3	−2	3
8	Tilikratis	3	−3	3
9	Lefkimmi	3	−5	3
10	Panagriniakos	3	−6	3
11	Pallixouriakos	3	−3	1
12	Levante	3	−12	0