Thiva v Karystos prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Thiva 0–2 Karystos KARYSTOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karystos win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karystos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thiva 32%, draw 28%, Karystos 39%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Thiva v KarystosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Thiva win32%

Draw28%

Karystos win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thiva

Karystos

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Karystos	3	+3	6
11	Thiva	3	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karystos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Karystos a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thiva v Karystos~~1.02 – 1.16

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thiva win	32%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Karystos win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Thiva or draw	61%	–	–
Thiva clean sheet	33%	–	–
Karystos clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.8 13.6 7.5 3.1 1 12.1 12.2 7.2 2.9 2 5.9 6.4 3.6 3 2.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thiva down, Karystos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 703 Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Thiva at home: 1.00 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 1). Karystos away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Thiva, 1.16 for Karystos. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 27 Sept

THIVA

LLL1–3 · 1–4 · 0–1

KARYSTOS

LWW1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kifissos	3	+5	7
2	Diagoras Agias	3	+2	7
3	Karystos	3	+3	6
4	Fokikos	3	+2	5
5	Nea Artaki	3	+2	4
6	Tamynaikos Aliveriou	2	+2	4
7	A. Schimatari	2	+1	4
8	Lamia	2	−1	3
9	Katsantonis Agrafon	3	−5	1
10	Asteras Stavros	3	−5	0
11	Thiva	3	−6	0