Katsantonis Agrafon v Thiva prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Katsantonis AgrafonDrawThiva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Katsantonis Agrafon 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Katsantonis Agrafon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Katsantonis Agrafon 49%, draw 25%, Thiva 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Katsantonis Agrafon v ThivaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Katsantonis Agrafon win49%

Draw25%

Thiva win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Katsantonis Agrafon

Thiva

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Katsantonis Agrafon	4	−6	1
11	Thiva	4	−8	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · katsantonis agrafon winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Katsantonis Agrafon a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Katsantonis Agrafon v Thiva~~1.50 – 0.98

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W0 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Katsantonis Agrafon win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Thiva win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Katsantonis Agrafon or draw	75%	–	–
Katsantonis Agrafon clean sheet	39%	–	–
Thiva clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 8.9 8.7 4.1 1 13.0 11.6 5.7 2 9.3 8.6 4.2 3 4.7 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Katsantonis Agrafon down, Thiva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 708 Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Katsantonis Agrafon at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Thiva away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Katsantonis Agrafon, 0.98 for Thiva. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 27 Sept

KATSANTONIS AGRAFON

LDLL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 1–2

THIVA

LLLL1–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karystos	4	+5	9
2	Kifissos	4	+5	8
3	Diagoras Agias	4	+2	8
4	A. Schimatari	3	+3	7
5	Lamia	3	+2	6
6	Fokikos	4	−1	5
7	Nea Artaki	3	+2	4
8	Tamynaikos Aliveriou	3	0	4
9	Asteras Stavros	4	−4	3
10	Katsantonis Agrafon	4	−6	1
11	Thiva	4	−8	0