Katsantonis Agrafon v Asteras Stavros prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Katsantonis Agrafon 1–2 Asteras Stavros KATSANTONIS AGRAFON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Katsantonis Agrafon win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Katsantonis Agrafon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Katsantonis Agrafon 47%, draw 27%, Asteras Stavros 27%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Katsantonis Agrafon v Asteras StavrosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Katsantonis Agrafon win47%

Draw27%

Asteras Stavros win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Katsantonis Agrafon

Asteras Stavros

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Katsantonis Agrafon	3	−5	1
10	Asteras Stavros	3	−5	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · katsantonis agrafon winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Katsantonis Agrafon a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Katsantonis Agrafon v Asteras Stavros~~1.36 – 0.93

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Katsantonis Agrafon win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Asteras Stavros win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Katsantonis Agrafon or draw	73%	–	–
Katsantonis Agrafon clean sheet	40%	–	–
Asteras Stavros clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 10.5 10.1 4.5 1 14.2 11.9 5.7 2 9.1 8.1 3.8 3 4.2 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Katsantonis Agrafon down, Asteras Stavros across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 703 Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Katsantonis Agrafon at home: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Asteras Stavros away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Katsantonis Agrafon, 0.93 for Asteras Stavros. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 27 Sept

KATSANTONIS AGRAFON

LDL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–4

ASTERAS STAVROS

LLL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kifissos	3	+5	7
2	Diagoras Agias	3	+2	7
3	Karystos	3	+3	6
4	Fokikos	3	+2	5
5	Nea Artaki	3	+2	4
6	Tamynaikos Aliveriou	2	+2	4
7	A. Schimatari	2	+1	4
8	Lamia	2	−1	3
9	Katsantonis Agrafon	3	−5	1
10	Asteras Stavros	3	−5	0
11	Thiva	3	−6	0