Fokikos v Diagoras Agias prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FokikosDrawDiagoras Agias

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fokikos 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fokikos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fokikos 42%, draw 28%, Diagoras Agias 30%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Fokikos v Diagoras AgiasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fokikos win42%

Draw28%

Diagoras Agias win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fokikos

Diagoras Agias

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Diagoras Agias	4	+2	8
6	Fokikos	4	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fokikos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Fokikos a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fokikos v Diagoras Agias~~1.24 – 0.99

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fokikos win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Diagoras Agias win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Fokikos or draw	70%	–	–
Fokikos clean sheet	38%	–	–
Diagoras Agias clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 11.3 11.1 5.3 1 13.7 12.4 6.2 2.1 2 8.2 7.7 3.8 3 3.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fokikos down, Diagoras Agias across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 708 Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Fokikos at home: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Diagoras Agias away: 0.50 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Fokikos, 0.99 for Diagoras Agias. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 this season · since 26 Sept

FOKIKOS

WDDL3–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–4

DIAGORAS AGIAS

DWWD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karystos	4	+5	9
2	Kifissos	4	+5	8
3	Diagoras Agias	4	+2	8
4	A. Schimatari	3	+3	7
5	Lamia	3	+2	6
6	Fokikos	4	−1	5
7	Nea Artaki	3	+2	4
8	Tamynaikos Aliveriou	3	0	4
9	Asteras Stavros	4	−4	3
10	Katsantonis Agrafon	4	−6	1
11	Thiva	4	−8	0