Trikala v Digenis Neochori prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TrikalaDrawDigenis Neochori

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trikala 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trikala are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trikala 60%, draw 22%, Digenis Neochori 18%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Trikala v Digenis NeochoriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Trikala win60%

Draw22%

Digenis Neochori win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trikala

Digenis Neochori

14Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

Last match: 17 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Trikala	3	+5	9
10	Digenis Neochori	3	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trikala winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Trikala a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trikala v Digenis Neochori~~1.79 – 0.79

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trikala win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Digenis Neochori win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Trikala or draw	82%	–	–
Trikala clean sheet	47%	–	–
Digenis Neochori clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 8.3 6.9 2.6 1 14.2 9.9 4.1 2 11.6 8.6 3.4 3 6.9 5.1 2.0 4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trikala down, Digenis Neochori across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trikala at home: 3.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Digenis Neochori away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Trikala, 0.79 for Digenis Neochori. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRI 2–2 DIG · DIG 0–2 TRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

TRIKALA

WWW1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

DIGENIS NEOCHORI

LDD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Anthoupoli	5	+5	10
2	Trikala	3	+5	9
3	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	4	+3	9
4	Ermis Exochi	4	+4	7
5	Elassona	4	+2	7
6	Pierikos	3	+1	4
7	Karitsa	3	0	4
8	Feraios	5	−3	4
9	Sarakinos	4	−5	3
10	Digenis Neochori	3	−3	2
11	Iraklis Larissa	4	−9	0