Sarakinos v Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Sarakinos 1–3 Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou SARAKINOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarakinos win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarakinos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarakinos 42%, draw 25%, Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sarakinos v Ethnikos Neou KeramidiouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sarakinos win42%

Draw25%

Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarakinos

Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	3	+1	6
9	Sarakinos	3	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarakinos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Sarakinos a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarakinos v Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou~~1.36 – 1.14

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarakinos win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Sarakinos or draw	68%	–	–
Sarakinos clean sheet	33%	–	–
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 8.6 10.2 5.4 2.2 1 11.9 11.5 6.7 2.7 2 7.5 7.9 4.4 3 3.5 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarakinos down, Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarakinos at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Sarakinos, 1.14 for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAR 0–4 ETH · ETH 1–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

SARAKINOS

LWL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

ETHNIKOS NEOU KERAMIDIOU

LWW0–3 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trikala	3	+5	9
2	Elassona	3	+2	6
3	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	3	+1	6
4	Anthoupoli	3	+2	4
5	Ermis Exochi	3	+1	4
6	Karitsa	2	+1	4
7	Pierikos	2	+1	3
8	Feraios	3	−1	3
9	Sarakinos	3	−3	3
10	Digenis Neochori	2	−3	1
11	Iraklis Larissa	3	−6	0