Sarakinos v Ermis Exochi prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SarakinosDrawErmis Exochi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ermis Exochi 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ermis Exochi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarakinos 37%, draw 23%, Ermis Exochi 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Sarakinos v Ermis ExochiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sarakinos win37%

Draw23%

Ermis Exochi win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarakinos

Ermis Exochi

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ermis Exochi	4	+4	7
9	Sarakinos	4	−5	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ermis exochi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Ermis Exochi a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarakinos v Ermis Exochi~~1.42 – 1.48

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarakinos win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ermis Exochi win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Sarakinos or draw	61%	–	–
Sarakinos clean sheet	25%	–	–
Ermis Exochi clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.9 9.0 6.0 3.0 1 8.7 10.6 7.8 3.9 2 5.7 7.6 5.4 2.7 3 2.7 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarakinos down, Ermis Exochi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarakinos at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Ermis Exochi away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Sarakinos, 1.48 for Ermis Exochi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAR 1–2 ERM · ERM 4–1 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

SARAKINOS

LWLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3

ERMIS EXOCHI

DWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trikala	3	+5	9
2	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	4	+3	9
3	Ermis Exochi	4	+4	7
4	Anthoupoli	4	+3	7
5	Elassona	4	+2	7
6	Pierikos	3	+1	4
7	Karitsa	3	0	4
8	Feraios	4	−1	4
9	Sarakinos	4	−5	3
10	Digenis Neochori	3	−3	2
11	Iraklis Larissa	4	−9	0