Pierikos v Karitsa prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PierikosDrawKaritsa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pierikos 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pierikos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pierikos 51%, draw 25%, Karitsa 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Pierikos v KaritsaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pierikos win51%

Draw25%

Karitsa win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pierikos

Karitsa

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pierikos	3	+1	4
7	Karitsa	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pierikos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Pierikos a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pierikos v Karitsa~~1.56 – 0.94

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pierikos win	51%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Karitsa win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Pierikos or draw	76%	–	–
Pierikos clean sheet	40%	–	–
Karitsa clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 8.8 8.7 3.9 1 13.4 11.0 5.4 2 9.6 8.5 4.0 3 5.1 4.4 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pierikos down, Karitsa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number5 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Pierikos, 0.94 for Karitsa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

PIERIKOS

WLD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

KARITSA

WDL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Anthoupoli	5	+5	10
2	Trikala	3	+5	9
3	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	4	+3	9
4	Ermis Exochi	4	+4	7
5	Elassona	4	+2	7
6	Pierikos	3	+1	4
7	Karitsa	3	0	4
8	Feraios	5	−3	4
9	Sarakinos	4	−5	3
10	Digenis Neochori	3	−3	2
11	Iraklis Larissa	4	−9	0