Iraklis Larissa v Elassona prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Iraklis LarissaDrawElassona

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Elassona 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elassona are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iraklis Larissa 33%, draw 24%, Elassona 43%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Iraklis Larissa v ElassonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Iraklis Larissa win33%

Draw24%

Elassona win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iraklis Larissa

Elassona

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Elassona	4	+2	7
11	Iraklis Larissa	4	−9	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elassona winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Elassona a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iraklis Larissa v Elassona~~1.25 – 1.49

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 7~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iraklis Larissa win	33%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Elassona win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Iraklis Larissa or draw	57%	–	–
Iraklis Larissa clean sheet	24%	–	–
Elassona clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.8 10.4 7.1 3.6 1 9.0 11.0 8.1 4.1 2 5.2 7.0 5.0 2.5 3 2.3 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iraklis Larissa down, Elassona across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iraklis Larissa at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Elassona away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Iraklis Larissa, 1.49 for Elassona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELA 0–1 IRA · IRA 3–2 ELA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

IRAKLIS LARISSA

LLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

ELASSONA

WLWD3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trikala	3	+5	9
2	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	4	+3	9
3	Ermis Exochi	4	+4	7
4	Anthoupoli	4	+3	7
5	Elassona	4	+2	7
6	Pierikos	3	+1	4
7	Karitsa	3	0	4
8	Feraios	4	−1	4
9	Sarakinos	4	−5	3
10	Digenis Neochori	3	−3	2
11	Iraklis Larissa	4	−9	0