Ermis Exochi v Iraklis Larissa prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Ermis Exochi 4–1 Iraklis Larissa ERMIS EXOCHI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ermis Exochi win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ermis Exochi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ermis Exochi 62%, draw 20%, Iraklis Larissa 18%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ermis Exochi v Iraklis LarissaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ermis Exochi win62%

Draw20%

Iraklis Larissa win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ermis Exochi

Iraklis Larissa

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ermis Exochi	3	+1	4
11	Iraklis Larissa	3	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ermis exochi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Ermis Exochi a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ermis Exochi v Iraklis Larissa~~2.03 – 0.92

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 0~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ermis Exochi win	62%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Iraklis Larissa win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Ermis Exochi or draw	82%	–	–
Ermis Exochi clean sheet	41%	–	–
Iraklis Larissa clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 5.9 2.5 1 11.5 9.2 4.4 2 10.3 8.9 4.1 3 6.8 5.9 2.7 4 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ermis Exochi down, Iraklis Larissa across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Ermis Exochi at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Iraklis Larissa away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Ermis Exochi, 0.92 for Iraklis Larissa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

ERMIS EXOCHI

DWL1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

IRAKLIS LARISSA

LLL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trikala	3	+5	9
2	Elassona	3	+2	6
3	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	3	+1	6
4	Anthoupoli	3	+2	4
5	Ermis Exochi	3	+1	4
6	Karitsa	2	+1	4
7	Pierikos	2	+1	3
8	Feraios	3	−1	3
9	Sarakinos	3	−3	3
10	Digenis Neochori	2	−3	1
11	Iraklis Larissa	3	−6	0