Elassona v Feraios prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Elassona 1–1 Feraios ELASSONA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elassona win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.918

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elassona are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elassona 54%, draw 24%, Feraios 22%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Elassona v FeraiosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Elassona win54%

Draw24%

Feraios win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elassona

Feraios

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Elassona	3	+2	6
8	Feraios	3	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elassona winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Elassona a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elassona v Feraios~~1.62 – 0.91

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~2 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elassona win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Feraios win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Elassona or draw	78%	–	–
Elassona clean sheet	42%	–	–
Feraios clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 8.5 8.2 3.5 1 13.6 10.7 5.1 2 10.1 8.6 3.9 3 5.5 4.7 2.1 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elassona down, Feraios across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Elassona at home: 3.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Feraios away: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Elassona, 0.91 for Feraios. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 this season · since 26 Sept

ELASSONA

WLW3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0

FERAIOS

LLW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Trikala	3	+5	9
2	Elassona	3	+2	6
3	Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou	3	+1	6
4	Anthoupoli	3	+2	4
5	Ermis Exochi	3	+1	4
6	Karitsa	2	+1	4
7	Pierikos	2	+1	3
8	Feraios	3	−1	3
9	Sarakinos	3	−3	3
10	Digenis Neochori	2	−3	1
11	Iraklis Larissa	3	−6	0