Vatolakkos v Doxa Mascholouriou prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VatolakkosDrawDoxa Mascholouriou

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Doxa Mascholouriou 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Doxa Mascholouriou are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vatolakkos 34%, draw 25%, Doxa Mascholouriou 41%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vatolakkos v Doxa MascholouriouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Vatolakkos win34%

Draw25%

Doxa Mascholouriou win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vatolakkos

Doxa Mascholouriou

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Doxa Mascholouriou	4	−1	6
11	Vatolakkos	4	−12	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doxa mascholouriou winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Doxa Mascholouriou a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vatolakkos v Doxa Mascholouriou~~1.21 – 1.37

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~11 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vatolakkos win	34%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Doxa Mascholouriou win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Vatolakkos or draw	59%	–	–
Vatolakkos clean sheet	28%	–	–
Doxa Mascholouriou clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 8.2 11.0 7.0 3.3 1 10.0 11.5 7.7 3.6 2 5.7 7.0 4.6 2.1 3 2.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vatolakkos down, Doxa Mascholouriou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,051 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Vatolakkos at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Doxa Mascholouriou away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Vatolakkos, 1.37 for Doxa Mascholouriou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept

VATOLAKKOS

LLLL0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–5

DOXA MASCHOLOURIOU

WLWL1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Makedonikos Siatista	4	+5	10
2	Veria	3	+6	9
3	Anagennisi Artas	4	+3	8
4	Eordaikos	4	+2	7
5	Alexandros Florinas	3	+6	6
6	Doxa Mascholouriou	4	−1	6
7	Kastoria	4	−1	4
8	Naousa	3	−2	3
9	PAS Giannina	3	−1	2
10	Thyella Katsikas	4	−5	1
11	Vatolakkos	4	−12	0