Thyella Katsikas v Kastoria prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Thyella KatsikasDrawKastoria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Thyella Katsikas 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thyella Katsikas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thyella Katsikas 42%, draw 28%, Kastoria 30%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Thyella Katsikas v KastoriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Thyella Katsikas win42%

Draw28%

Kastoria win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thyella Katsikas

Kastoria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kastoria	4	−1	4
10	Thyella Katsikas	4	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thyella katsikas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Thyella Katsikas a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thyella Katsikas v Kastoria~~1.20 – 0.96

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thyella Katsikas win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Kastoria win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Thyella Katsikas or draw	70%	–	–
Thyella Katsikas clean sheet	40%	–	–
Kastoria clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 12.3 11.7 5.4 1 14.3 12.0 5.9 2 8.2 7.3 3.5 3 3.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thyella Katsikas down, Kastoria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,051 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thyella Katsikas at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Kastoria away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Thyella Katsikas, 0.96 for Kastoria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAS 0–2 THY · THY 0–2 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept

THYELLA KATSIKAS

LDLL1–4 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

KASTORIA

WLLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Makedonikos Siatista	4	+5	10
2	Veria	3	+6	9
3	Anagennisi Artas	4	+3	8
4	Eordaikos	4	+2	7
5	Alexandros Florinas	3	+6	6
6	Doxa Mascholouriou	4	−1	6
7	Kastoria	4	−1	4
8	Naousa	3	−2	3
9	PAS Giannina	3	−1	2
10	Thyella Katsikas	4	−5	1
11	Vatolakkos	4	−12	0