Naousa v Veria prediction · Gamma Ethniki

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NaousaDrawVeria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Naousa 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Naousa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Naousa 38%, draw 26%, Veria 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Naousa v VeriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Naousa win38%

Draw26%

Veria win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naousa

Veria

15Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Veria	3	+6	9
8	Naousa	3	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naousa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Naousa a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naousa v Veria~~1.28 – 1.24

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naousa win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Veria win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Naousa or draw	64%	–	–
Naousa clean sheet	31%	–	–
Veria clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 8.7 10.6 6.2 2.7 1 11.0 11.6 7.1 3.1 2 6.7 7.5 4.4 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naousa down, Veria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,051 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Naousa at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Veria away: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Naousa, 1.24 for Veria. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept

NAOUSA

LLW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

VERIA

WWW4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Makedonikos Siatista	4	+5	10
2	Veria	3	+6	9
3	Anagennisi Artas	4	+3	8
4	Eordaikos	4	+2	7
5	Alexandros Florinas	3	+6	6
6	Doxa Mascholouriou	4	−1	6
7	Kastoria	4	−1	4
8	Naousa	3	−2	3
9	PAS Giannina	3	−1	2
10	Thyella Katsikas	4	−5	1
11	Vatolakkos	4	−12	0