Makedonikos Siatista v Doxa Mascholouriou prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Makedonikos Siatista 1–0 Doxa Mascholouriou MAKEDONIKOS SIATISTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Makedonikos Siatista win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Makedonikos Siatista are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Makedonikos Siatista 55%, draw 25%, Doxa Mascholouriou 20%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Makedonikos Siatista v Doxa MascholouriouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Makedonikos Siatista win55%

Draw25%

Doxa Mascholouriou win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Makedonikos Siatista

Doxa Mascholouriou

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · makedonikos siatista winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Makedonikos Siatista a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Makedonikos Siatista v Doxa Mascholouriou~~1.56 – 0.78

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Makedonikos Siatista win	55%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Doxa Mascholouriou win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Makedonikos Siatista or draw	80%	–	–
Makedonikos Siatista clean sheet	47%	–	–
Doxa Mascholouriou clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 10.5 8.3 3.1 1 15.4 10.8 4.4 2 11.1 8.2 3.2 3 5.9 4.3 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Makedonikos Siatista down, Doxa Mascholouriou across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Makedonikos Siatista at home: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Doxa Mascholouriou away: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Makedonikos Siatista, 0.78 for Doxa Mascholouriou. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 this season · since 27 Sept

MAKEDONIKOS SIATISTA

DWW0–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

DOXA MASCHOLOURIOU

WLW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Makedonikos Siatista	3	+4	7
2	Anagennisi Artas	3	+3	7
3	Veria	2	+5	6
4	Doxa Mascholouriou	3	0	6
5	Eordaikos	3	+1	4
6	Alexandros Florinas	2	+2	3
7	Kastoria	3	−1	3
8	Naousa	3	−2	3
9	PAS Giannina	2	0	2
10	Thyella Katsikas	3	−4	1
11	Vatolakkos	3	−8	0