Mpam v Makedonikos Neapolis prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Mpam 2–2 Makedonikos Neapolis MPAM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mpam win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.939

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mpam are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mpam 49%, draw 22%, Makedonikos Neapolis 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Mpam v Makedonikos NeapolisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mpam win49%

Draw22%

Makedonikos Neapolis win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mpam

Makedonikos Neapolis

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mpam	4	+4	8
6	Makedonikos Neapolis	4	−1	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mpam winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Mpam a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mpam v Makedonikos Neapolis~~1.80 – 1.33

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mpam win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mpam win	49%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Makedonikos Neapolis win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Mpam or draw	71%	–	–
Mpam clean sheet	30%	–	–
Makedonikos Neapolis clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 5.3 6.8 4.0 1 9.0 9.6 6.1 2.8 2 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.3 3 4.4 5.0 3.1 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mpam down, Makedonikos Neapolis across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Mpam at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Makedonikos Neapolis away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Mpam, 1.33 for Makedonikos Neapolis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 this season · since 26 Sept

MPAM

DWWD1–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 4–4

MAKEDONIKOS NEAPOLIS

LWLD0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poseidon Nea Michaniona	4	+7	10
2	Finikas Polichnis	4	+1	9
3	Mpam	4	+4	8
4	Iraklis Therm.	4	+3	8
5	Agiou Nikolaou	3	+3	7
6	Makedonikos Neapolis	4	−1	4
7	Polykastrou	3	−1	3
8	Akrites Sykeon	4	−3	3
9	Panedessaikos	3	−3	1
10	Kilkisiakos	4	−4	1
11	PAO Kristoni	3	−6	1