Kilkisiakos v Mpam prediction · Gamma Ethniki

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Kilkisiakos 4–4 Mpam KILKISIAKOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kilkisiakos win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.856

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kilkisiakos just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kilkisiakos 39%, draw 24%, Mpam 37%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Kilkisiakos v MpamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kilkisiakos win39%

Draw24%

Mpam win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kilkisiakos

Mpam

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mpam	3	+4	7
11	Kilkisiakos	3	−4	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kilkisiakos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Kilkisiakos a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kilkisiakos v Mpam~~1.42 – 1.37

~~Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 7~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kilkisiakos win	39%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Mpam win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Kilkisiakos or draw	63%	–	–
Kilkisiakos clean sheet	27%	–	–
Mpam clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.7 9.1 5.9 2.8 1 9.3 11.2 7.6 3.5 2 6.2 7.8 5.2 2.4 3 3.0 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kilkisiakos down, Mpam across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,036 Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kilkisiakos at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 1). Mpam away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Kilkisiakos, 1.37 for Mpam. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 this season · since 27 Sept

KILKISIAKOS

LLL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–2

MPAM

DWW1–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Poseidon Nea Michaniona	3	+7	9
2	Finikas Polichnis	3	+3	9
3	Mpam	3	+4	7
4	Iraklis Therm.	3	+2	5
5	Agiou Nikolaou	2	+1	4
6	Makedonikos Neapolis	3	−1	3
7	Akrites Sykeon	3	−2	3
8	Panedessaikos	2	−2	1
9	PAO Kristoni	3	−6	1
10	Polykastrou	2	−2	0
11	Kilkisiakos	3	−4	0